US officials expect significant escalation between Israel and Hezbollah

U.S. officials are anticipating that the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah will increase significantly in the coming days, potentially sparking an all-out war between the two sides.

American officials have long said that both Israel and Hezbollah want to avoid war. But tensions are at an all-time high following Israel’s consecutive attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon this week. The latest analysis inside the Biden administration is that it will be difficult for both sides to de-escalate, according to two senior U.S. officials familiar with the conversations.

The increasing concerns inside the Biden administration come after Israel detonated Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies this week, and bombed a residential building in Beirut, reportedly killing top Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil.

These latest attacks constitute the opening salvo of a wider Israeli military campaign to degrade Hezbollah’s warfighting capabilities in southern Lebanon, the officials said. And Washington is in talks with Israel and its regional allies to try and prevent a direct confrontation between the two sides. The officials, and others, were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive internal government deliberations.

The private assessments contrast with the administration’s official messaging that diplomacy can still prevent further bloodshed.

“We still believe that there is time and space for a diplomatic solution,” National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters Friday. “We think that that is the best way forward. War is not inevitable up there at the blue line, and we’re going to continue to do everything we can to try to prevent it.”

But Israel has told Washington that it is intent on pressuring Hezbollah — through military action — to agree to a diplomatic solution that would return Israelis to their home in the north. And the U.S. officials told POLITICO they expect the situation to get worse in the coming days.

One official said attacks could continue in Lebanon, particularly in Beirut, and the U.S. is expecting to see some form of retaliation from Hezbollah against Israel, potentially in the form of drone attacks.

The fighting is also expected to include targeted assassinations of Hezbollah commanders, strikes against Hezbollah arms depots and further targeting of Hezbollah’s communications infrastructure, a third U.S. official said.

The first two U.S. officials did say that the tit-for-tat attacks aren’t likely to spark an immediate direct confrontation on Israel’s northern border — where both sides have increasingly exchanged fire since Oct. 7. Still, the fighting outside of that conflict zone — in Lebanon and Israel proper — is worrisome and will only heighten tensions.

That thinking is in line with analysts who say the situation is at a breaking point.

“Both sides think they can increase the tempo of attacks and pressure while still keeping it below the threshold of a full-scale war,” said Firas Maksad of the Middle East Institute. “But at this point, nothing is guaranteed.”

The Biden administration’s ultimate fear is a full-on regional war that could eventually draw in the United States, and U.S. officials have gone to great lengths to prevent such a scenario. But, in the wake of the Israel-Hamas war that began Oct. 7, governments and groups ranging from Iran’s Islamist regime to Yemen’s Houthis have at various points stoked tensions.

Since Oct. 7, U.S. officials have looked to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s speeches as an indication of the group’s appetite for war with Israel. On Thursday, Nasrallah offered what some officials are describing as his strongest comments yet, saying Israel’s pager and walkie-talkie attacks could amount to a “declaration of war.”

“The enemy has crossed all red lines,” he said.

Israeli officials have also publicly stated that they have entered a new phase of the war. In a video on X, Israel Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said, “the sequence of military actions will continue.”

To some extent, the administration is still in the throes of trying to determine exactly how this week’s events will play out in the coming days, according to a fourth U.S. official who works on Middle East issues. Israel and Hezbollah have been on the brink several times over the past year. Each time, through diplomatic pressure, the U.S. and its other regional partners have kept the conflict from unraveling.

Israel has told Washington, despite its pleas that it not escalate the fighting with Hezbollah, that Israel is not going to wait to take action against the Iran proxy, according to a person familiar with Israel’s thinking.

With cease-fire talks stalled in Gaza, Israel wants to settle the conflict with Hezbollah on its northern border in order to allow for the return of thousands of Israelis to their homes.

“It’s all about deterrence,” the person said, adding that Israel is focused on pushing Hezbollah to a diplomatic solution.

Gaza negotiations have been stalled for weeks as both Israel and Hamas have accused the other of not doing enough to agree to the terms on the table. The increased fighting between Israel and Hezbollah will likely prevent Gaza cease-fire talks from moving forward in the immediate future.

But Hezbollah’s leaders have said that the only way the group will agree to reduce the violence with Israel is if a cease-fire is agreed in Gaza.

Asked by a reporter Friday if he thought the cease-fire deal was attainable, President Joe Biden said: “If I ever say it’s not realistic, then I might as well leave. A lot of things don’t look realistic until we get them done. We have to keep at it.”

Nahal Toosi contributed to this report.