Azerbaijan craters its own climate conference

BAKU, Azerbaijan — A COP host’s main job is to smooth things over. Ilham Aliyev has other ideas. 

The Azerbaijani autocrat opened this year’s global climate conference, known as COP29, with a rant against Western “hypocrisy.” Two days later, he tore into France and the Netherlands for what he described as “repression” and ongoing colonial rule. Within hours, France’s top climate official canceled her trip to Baku.

The direct attacks — highly unusual in the three-decade history of United Nations climate talks — have left senior foreign affairs officials questioning whether the petrostate president is actually committed to the delicate dance of getting 200 countries to find consensus.

“These unacceptable statements risk to undermine the conference’s vital climate objectives and the credibility of Azerbaijan’s COP29 presidency,” the EU’s foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said Thursday. 

Aliyev’s explosive intervention came at a meeting of island leaders on Wednesday. The president highlighted the threat of climate change to the overseas territories of European countries such as Mayotte and Curaçao, accusing France and the Netherlands of “brutally” suppressing the “voices of these communities.”

The two countries issued furious rebuttals. French Ecological Transition Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher, who was supposed to negotiate at COP29 on France’s behalf next week, canceled her attendance at the summit. 

“Azerbaijan is instrumentalizing the fight against climate change for its undignified personal agenda,” Pannier-Runacher complained. 

They were backed by the EU, whose Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra — a Dutch politician — was quick to throw his support behind the French. 

Aliyev’s remarks followed his controversial opening speech on Monday, in which he also praised fossil fuels as a “gift of the God.” He is also using the summit to strike gas deals. 

Closer to home, the Azerbaijani president tends to show little regard for human rights, having ruled over a repressive state for more than two decades. But his colonialism speech nevertheless received significant applause at the island leaders’ meeting. 

“I think it’s one of those things that resonate,” said Pa’olelei Luteru, the chair of the Alliance of Small Island States. “Any time a leader speaks to the issues that are close to our heart, we are grateful because it gives us visibility as well. And self-determination is one of those issues that I think is important, not just for small island developing states.” 

The COP29 presidency did not respond to a request for comment. In a press conference on Thursday, Azerbaijan’s lead negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev declined to comment on Aliyev’s speech, which he described as “very clear.” 

“In terms of the French minister’s intention not to come, the host country Azerbaijan has made sure that we have an inclusive process here,” he said at a press conference. “Our doors are still open.” 

Capacity questions

For some, the spat added to the sense that the Azerbaijani hosts were a little out of their depth. 

In the run-up to the summit, which started Monday and lasts until the end of next week, several diplomats had expressed concerns about the ability of the COP29 presidency to shepherd nearly 200 countries toward an agreement. 

“I’ve been around the negotiations for a long time. I don’t think I’ve ever bumped into an Azerbaijani negotiator that I realized was an Azerbaijani negotiator. They just haven’t been a player that I’ve ever seen,” said Todd Stern, a former U.S. climate envoy, speaking ahead of the talks. 

Part of the reason is that Azerbaijan had less than a year to prepare for the mega-summit, as the process for choosing a host country was delayed after tensions over Russia’s war in Ukraine spilled into the climate talks. 

Countries usually have about two years to set up a conference, and Azerbaijan was only chosen because Moscow and Ukraine’s European allies vetoed each other’s nominees. 

Several diplomats POLITICO spoke to said the presidency’s negotiators were hard-working and determined, though two European negotiators wondered whether they had the necessary political backing from their government. 

“They’ve done a tremendous job trying to close the gaps after a very late start,” said one of the negotiators, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. “But so far it’s not yielding much on substance. And we have an extremely complicated decision to take.” 

EU ‘very worried’ about state of play

The main job of the Azerbaijani presidency is to deliver a deal on climate finance, easily the thorniest subject at COPs. 

The world’s countries have to agree on a new long-term funding target to replace the current goal of $100 billion a year. This money, currently provided by countries classified as industrialized in 1992, funds measures to cut planet-warming emissions and to prepare for the consequences of climate change in developing countries. 

The knotty question that needs answering in Baku is how and when to deliver what kind of funding from which sources — and, crucially, how much. 

Pointing to studies putting their funding needs in the trillions, developing countries are asking for a tenfold increase from the current target. But developed countries say any sort of top-up is possible only if wealthy emerging economies like China or the Gulf states chip in. 

The latest draft text on Thursday runs over 30 pages, an unwieldy length at this stage of the negotiations. “We are very worried,” said Jake Werksman, the EU’s head of delegation in Baku, at a press conference on Thursday. 

Rafiyev said it was, at least for now, up to diplomats to overcome some of their differences: “The draft text needs to be streamlined further.” 

On Aliyev’s comments, Werksman struck a more diplomatic tone than politicians in Brussels and Paris, saying: “Regardless of any bilateral disagreements, the COP should be a place where all parties feel at liberty to come and negotiate on climate action.” 

The Azerbaijani presidency, he added, “has of course a particularly important role and responsibility to enable and enhance full and inclusive participation. They’ve been playing that role this week and we expect them to be playing that role next week as well.”