Climate change doubled likelihood of Central European flood catastrophe, scientists say
Similar events are becoming more predictable and severe as the planet warms, analysis finds.
BRUSSELS — Burning oil, gas and coal is increasing the probability and ferocity of flood-bringing rains in Central Europe, scientists warn.
The rising waters that killed at least 24 people from Poland to Romania this month are twice as likely to occur in today’s climate as in a world without man-made global warming, according to an analysis published Wednesday.
The scientists also found that the risk and severity of such disasters will increase even further as the planet continues to warm.
“Unless we stop burning fossil fuels, this rainfall and the associated flooding will only get worse,” said Friederike Otto, a climatologist at Imperial College London and co-author of the study.
The analysis, published by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) consortium of scientists specializing in rapid disaster attribution studies, also found that the rainfall that triggered the floods was “by far” the heaviest ever recorded in the region.
To determine the role climate change played in the flooding, the WWA group used peer-reviewed methods to compare how four-day heavy rainfall events across Poland, Germany, Austria, Romania, Slovakia and the Czech Republic have changed.
The study found that in today’s climate — which is about 1.3 degrees Celsius warmer than the preindustrial age, largely as a result of humanity’s continued use of fossil fuels — similar intense downpours have become not only twice as likely, but also 20 percent more intense.
In the future, such disasters will become even more ferocious. At around 2 C of warming, which Earth is currently on track to reach in the 2050s, similar events will become 50 percent more likely and dump 5 percent more rain than at present, the analysis found.
“But that’s probably an underestimation,” Otto said, “so we need to prepare for even more heavy rainfall than what is predicted from these models.”
The researchers also noted that thanks to better forecasting and preparation efforts, the floods were not as destructive and deadly as they could have been. Nevertheless, two dozen died, with several people still missing and damages in the billions of euros.
“The 2024 floods were well forecast, and early-warning systems allowed for timely evacuations and preemptive water reservoir releases in many areas, which did help keep the death toll significantly lower compared to similar events,” said Maja Vahlberg of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, who also contributed to the study.
“However,” she added, “as climate change accelerates, we must continue to invest in making our communities, defenses and response systems more resilient.”
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