Election annulment risks pouring fuel on Romania’s political blaze

BUCHAREST — If you think that annulling the first round of Romania’s disputed election — won by a far-right, NATO-skeptic firebrand — and holding it again in mid-December will soothe the country’s snowballing political crisis, think again. 

Romania’s constitutional court will decide on Monday whether to annul the highly controversial first round of the presidential election, held on Nov. 24. If it does, the court will almost certainly whip up fears — and protests — that the country’s widely distrusted establishment parties are trying to manipulate the electoral contest in their favor. 

Romania has been plunged into one of its most intense crises since the fall of Communism by the shock victory of the virtually unknown nationalist Călin Georgescu, an admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

His win has sparked fears about the country’s stability within the EU and NATO, and triggered immediate howls of protest from his opponents, who suspect covert activity, potentially by Russia, in his wildly popular TikTok campaign. 

Holding a new election, however, risks being an incendiary step. 

Anger with the old order

The winners of the first round and their allies are accusing Romania’s ruling parties — the defeated old order of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the center-right National Liberal Party (PNL) — of using the court to try to retain their grip on power. In a political earthquake, it is the first time a PSD candidate has failed to reach the second round since the country shook off Communism 35 years ago. 

Indeed, anger over the idea of rerunning the election in mid- to late December is an unexpected uniting factor between the far-right and reformist critics of the old guard.

“We feel strongly that the Constitutional Court is a political instrument and is suspending democracy in Romania,” said Adrian Axinia, vice-president of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) and a member of the European Parliament. The party unsuccessfully ran its own presidential candidate last Sunday, but is now supporting Georgescu.

Far-right politicians are attempting to cast themselves as an antidote to the traditional old parties riddled by cronyism and corruption. Frustration over the long dominance of the PSD and PNL helped spur support for Georgescu and, if the court on Monday overturns his win, it will only increase suspicions of political influence in public institutions and potentially mobilize the far right even more.  

Running as an independent, Georgescu is due to face liberal Elena Lasconi of the Save Romania Union (USR) in a Dec. 8 runoff. Suspicious of the two old parties, she is also calling on the court not to meddle with Romanian democracy. 

The court ruling itself on Monday will be based on a somewhat peculiar point. It is studying allegations that votes from one candidate, who dropped out a week before the election in support of Lasconi, were illegally transferred to her on election night. The court on Thursday ordered a check and recount of all ballots — nearly 9.5 million — and could decide to cancel the first round if it finds that the order of the candidates was influenced by fraud.

‘Don’t destroy democracy in Romania’

Lasconi, who has rejected the accusations, edged out SPD Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu to enter the runoff by only some 2,700 votes. She and her party are accusing the PSD and center-right PNL of disrespecting the people’s vote.

“I appeal to all the state institutions: Don’t destroy democracy in Romania,” she said in a statement on Friday.

Ciolacu has rejected the accusations of PSD interference and said he would withdraw from consideration even if the court decided on a rerun of the first round of the presidential election.

Romanians will return to the polls this Sunday to vote for their representatives in the parliament.

Lasconi’s USR has already raised concerns that the recount is not being conducted transparently as independent observers are not allowed to observe it in many places, there’s no video recording of the process and far fewer people are involved in checking and recounting ballots than on election night.

“I fear that the way things are being handled by the Constitutional Court and the Central Electoral Office will lead to unforeseen side effects in the immediate future,” said Radu Magdin, a Romanian political analyst.

This opacity could further fuel the rise of far-right parties such as AUR in Sunday’s parliamentary election by fanning belief in conspiracy theories, he said.

The court has already been accused of undemocratic election meddling after it removed Diana Șoșoacă, a far-right, pro-Russia candidate, from the presidential ballot, saying she would threaten the country’s position in the EU and NATO. 

Now many worry that a potential Georgescu win in the presidential election would do just that.

Magdin explained that Romanians’ belief in conspiracy theories is very deeply rooted. This owes much to the country’s brutal 20th-century history, which has led to a belief in webs of influence, many of them related to the communist-era Securitate secret police, that permeate the old order in politics and public institutions.  

“A part of the electorate continues to believe in old conspiracy theories or developed new ones,” Magdin said.

But the man who brought the court case, Cristian Terheș, a member of the European Parliament, who ran for president and received about 1 percent of the vote, sees no conspiracy at play.

Whatever the result of the vote recount, “it’s a win-win for democracy,” he said. If the recount confirms the results of the first round, it shows that the election was fair. If it doesn’t, it corrects the results, he said.

“Unfortunately, in Romania, every time you do something, they wonder not if it is legitimate, but who made you do it and who it is useful for,” Terheș said. 

“Well, firstly, it is useful for democracy,” he concluded.

National pride

Yet, suspicions persist. Many center on Georgescu’s campaign, which he pitched as an appeal to help the country rediscover its national pride among other EU and NATO members and not swallow directives from the West.

He’s also said he wants peace and is not interested in involving the country in the conflict in neighboring Ukraine, which he has cast as someone else’s war.

Romanian authorities are questioning Georgescu’s claim that he spent no money to campaign amid allegations that some TikTok influencers were paid to promote him. Top national security officials said Thursday they had identified cyberattacks intended to influence the fairness of the first presidential round, and suggested Russia was involved.

Georgescu has dismissed accusations he received any improper support and accused Romanian institutions of creating instability and anger.

In response to the recount of the first round, he spoke with a note of messianism: “Dear people, believe only in yourself, and the path to light is before you.”