Hungary on path of no return under Orbán, warns Polish minister

Hungary is likely so far gone in defying EU law and undermining civil society that it won’t be able to change course while Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is in power, Poland’s justice minister warned.

Speaking to POLITICO in Brussels, Adam Bodnar said the example of Poland — whose previous right-wing leadership clashed with Brussels for years before being ousted in 2023 — showed that illiberal governments don’t change their ways even under huge pressure from Brussels.

“Under the current leadership it might be difficult” for Hungary to return to the EU’s good books, Bodnar said. “The example of Poland shows that unless you have a change of leadership, it might be extremely difficult to reverse [course on] rule of law and to regain democratic values.”

The comments come after Michael McGrath, the EU’s new rule-of-law commissioner, said last week that it was “never too late” for Hungary to come back in from the cold, and as Budapest is on the brink of losing €1 billion in EU money that was frozen because of rule-of-law breaches.

But Bodnar said that even if opposition leader Péter Magyar manages to beat Orbán in the 2026 Hungarian election, as polls show he might, the damage to civil society will have been so profound over 16 years of Fidesz rule that it would require a Herculean effort to repair it.

“Taking into account the depth of institutional changes but also weaker civil society than in Poland,” the European Commission faces a tough challenge bringing Budapest back into the EU fold, added Bodnar.

Bodnar, the Polish Ombudsman from 2015 until 2021, was an outspoken critic of his country’s previous nationalist Law and Justice-led government, before becoming Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s justice minister in 2023.

His comments came as Warsaw prepares to take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU from Hungary in January. Amid an emphasis on defense, competitiveness and enlargement, Bodnar said he would personally insist on beefing up protections for civil society, including judges who increasingly face pressure and intimidation around the bloc.

“Do we have chilling effect for judges to speak? If you ask Hungarian judges, I’m not sure whether they can speak about their situation freely,” Bodnar said. “We have a responsibility for protecting all those independent voices.”