Kyiv strains to see Trump’s true plan for Ukraine

KYIV — Businessmen, diplomats and politicians gathered in the basement of a Kyiv restaurant the night after Donald Trump’s landslide victory in the U.S. presidential election.

As air raid sirens howled outside, an atmosphere of uncertainty reigned.

Some people laughed, others appeared puzzled or lost; many wondered aloud if U.S. President Joe Biden would now lift all restrictions and give Ukraine everything it asked of him while he still can.

Still others pondered how to anticipate the unpredictable Trump and what Ukraine could do to win him over.

For Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the answer appears to be anticipatory flattery.

“It was extremely important for us in Ukraine and for all of Europe to consistently hear the words of [Trump in his first term as president] about peace through strength. And if this becomes the policy principle of [the incoming Trump presidency], America and the whole world will undoubtedly benefit from it,” Zelenskyy said in a Wednesday evening address.

“It is not without reason that [former U.S. President] Ronald Reagan is mentioned so often these days — people want confidence, they want freedom, a normal life. And for us, this means a life free from Russian aggression, and with a strong America, with a strong Ukraine, with strong allies,” he added.

As if reading tea leaves, Kyiv’s elites and politicians continue to decipher how Ukraine, which previously appealed to democratic values and the rule of law to win support in its war with Moscow, should now approach a man who takes a more hard-nosed approach to politics.

“We cannot know for sure what the new administration’s policy will be regarding the war … Of course, [Trump’s previously stated] promise to end the war in 24 hours is alarming, because [that] is hardly possible under conditions that would guarantee lasting peace in Europe and not destroy Ukraine,” said Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, chair of the Ukrainian parliament’s EU integration committee, in a post on Facebook.

“In order for these conditions to be based on things that are important to us, all networks of interaction with both political forces of the USA must be used, despite the comprehensive victory of the Republicans. Ukrainian diplomacy at all levels should finally turn off emotions and find clear pragmatic arguments for both American politicians and ordinary Americans,” Klympush-Tsintsadze added.

Despite repeated insistences during the U.S. election campaign by the Ukrainian government that it enjoyed bipartisan support in Washington, the prospect of a Trump victory clearly weighed heavily on Kyiv.

Trump’s wing of the Republican Party previously blocked aid to Ukraine from October 2023 to April this year, draining Kyiv’s wartime budget and costing the country some of its most capable fighters.

Trump has repeatedly claimed to have a good relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and has derided Zelenskyy as “the greatest salesman in history.” However, he has also claimed to have told Putin that the U.S. would bomb Moscow if it tried to attack Ukraine and has said he wants to help Zelenskyy.

Ukrainian lawmakers are sure some sort of plan exists.

“Whether it fully correlates with what they said during the campaign is hard for us to say. But … what is declared during the elections does not always correspond to what will be implemented after them,” Dmytro Razumkov, an independent Ukrainian MP and Zelenskyy’s 2019 presidential campaign manager, told POLITICO.

Zelenskyy is aware that the incoming Trump administration is likely to take a more pragmatic approach to Ukraine. That’s why the purported “Victory Plan” that he outlined publicly last month aims to prove to the U.S. and other partners that aid to Ukraine is not charity but a two-way street, said Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi at a briefing Thursday.  

While the first three points of the so-called Victory Plan feature a NATO invitation for Ukraine, more weapons and an end to restrictions on their use in Russia, the two last points concern what Ukraine offers in return: the use of its natural resources and its battle-hardened troops to secure Europe after the war.

“The Ukrainian president maintains intense contacts with Trump and his team. [The] presidents had a good meeting in New York [Sept. 27], where it was important to lay out Ukraine’s vision,” Tykhyi said.

“We think that ensuring a fair and just peace for Ukraine is in America’s best interests. This war is so much larger than just Ukraine. Supporting Ukraine is not charity, it is a very profitable investment in security for our partners,” he added.

Tykhyi conceded it had been suggested that if the West cuts aid to Ukraine, it would force Kyiv to seek peace at any cost. In reality, he said, cutting aid would only expand the war and increase Russian atrocities, forcing Ukraine’s allies subsequently to resume aid anyway.

“We have been very rational since the very beginning. Ukraine and President Zelenskyy aim at achieving results and deals, really anticipating cooperation with the Trump administration when they [take] office,” he said.

Any such deals, however, will not include swapping land for peace, Tykhyi said, because that would only increase Putin’s appetite. 

“Many of our partners need to be reminded what preceded Russia’s full-scale aggression — an ultimatum for NATO to roll back to its 1997 borders. Many times in the past, we have seen partners ignoring Ukraine’s warnings. In the end we have been proven right,” he added.