Marine Le Pen is on trial. A guilty verdict could doom her presidential ambitions.

PARIS — Polls suggest French far-right leader Marine Le Pen is closer than ever to winning the presidency. But a trial that begins Monday could upend her political future.

Le Pen, her National Rally party, and 26 other individuals — including current and former French lawmakers and MEPs are accused of embezzling European Parliament funds through what prosecutors called a “system” to award contracts for parliamentary assistants to individuals who mostly worked on party operations rather than European Union affairs in violation of EU rules. The alleged scheme took place between 2004 and 2016.

Le Pen has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing.

The stakes are enormous for the three-time presidential candidate. If found guilty after the two-month trial, she could face a maximum sentence of 10 years behind bars and a fine of as high as 1 million euros. While a prison term of that length is unlikely, she also faces a possible five-year ban on running for public office that would prevent her from standing in the 2027 presidential election.

Le Pen has already said that she plans on running in that contest. A recent poll found that, if the presidential election were to be held today, Le Pen could receive up to 40 percent of the vote in the first round, depending on who ran against her. Le Pen scored a little over 23 percent in the last presidential race and went on to lose the runoff with 41 percent of the vote.

Prosecutors said in a statement that they were told by the European Parliament that the National Rally spent millions of euros a year on parliamentary assistants, a majority of whom held key positions within the party.

“The European Parliament’s lawyers believe that, in this case, the Parliament has suffered both financial and reputational damage,” the Parliament’s press service said in a statement to POLITICO.

Other high-profile figures in the French far right are also implicated, including Jean-Marie Le Pen, the party’s founder and Marine’s father, as well as other elected officials like Louis Aliot, the mayor of the southern French city Perpignan and Marine Le Pen’s former domestic partner.

Jean-Marie, who is 96 years old, will be absent from the trial and has been placed under legal protection due to his declining health.

Cultural differences

The National Rally is not the first French party to face accusations of misusing MEP funds for domestic operations.

Earlier this year, the centrist Democratic Movement (MoDem), part of the coalition supporting French President Emmanuel Macron, was fined €300,000 over similar allegations. The European Parliament had initially estimated €1.4 million in losses from the MoDem’s scheme, but later reduced the figure to €293,000, according to Agence France-Presse.

The most high-profile figure in the MoDem case was François Bayrou, Macron’s first justice minister and one of the first political heavyweights to have thrown his support behind the French president. Bayrou was acquitted due to reasonable doubt, but several other party officials, including five former MEPs, were fined or given suspended prison sentences.

The National Rally argues that these cases stem from cultural differences in Paris and Brussels as to what constitutes being an employee of a political party.

“In French political parties, being on payroll is the exception and being a volunteer is the norm, but that’s not the case in other European political cultures,” a top National Rally official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly discuss the trial without impacting its outcome, said. “The European Anti-Fraud Office’s approach to politics is nonsensical. If an aide is a party member, it raises a red flag to them,” the official said.

Jordan Bardella, the National Rally’s current president, is notably not on trial. He had not yet been elected to the European Parliament or held key party positions during the period in question.

After leading the party’s successful campaign in the European elections and playing a vital role on the stump in the French snap elections that followed, Bardella’s growing influence and popularity has set the stage for a potential leadership fight between Le Pen and her protégé. The National Rally has publicly insisted that the pair is committed to running together as a “ticket,” with Le Pen aiming for the presidency and, if she wins, installing Bardella as prime minister.

But if Le Pen is found guilty, the succession process could come quicker than she likes.

“In politics, many can’t bear the thought of being replaced. For me, it’s a relief — not that I think I’ll be convicted,” Le Pen said in a documentary released in January. She added that Bardella, 29, had the “status and confidence” to take over.

However, new revelations could cloud Bardella’s future. According to a report in the left-leaning daily newspaper Libération, Bardella allegedly submitted falsified documents to investigators to prove he worked on parliamentary affairs, not party business, in 2015 while employed as an assistant to former MEP Jean-François Jalkh.

Bardella called the allegations “false” on X after the Libération report was published. The National Rally said in a statement that the story’s publication days before the trial’s opening was a “crude attempt” to upend the proceedings.”No one will be fooled,” the statement read.

Benefiting from a trial

While criminal trials have historically proved damaging to politicians, the National Rally is hoping to take a page out of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s playbook and use the proceedings to their advantage. Le Pen may not be selling mugshots of herself like Trump did, but she is determined to keep herself in the spotlight throughout the trial.

“Marine [Le Pen] is going to be very present, very involved in her trial, and she’s planned her agenda accordingly. She wants to be in court on as many days as possible,” a high-ranking National Rally lawmaker and close Le Pen ally, who was granted anonymity to discuss a legal strategy, said.

The MP added that Le Pen believes her presence could sway the outcome, especially given her past career as an attorney before entering politics.

“It will be like she’s back in her lawyer’s robes,” the lawmaker added.

Despite the potential consequences, some in the party see a guilty verdict as manageable. They believe party supporters may stand by Le Pen no matter what the courts decide.

“We’ve always handled court rulings very well, and our voters have done so even better,” the National Rally lawmaker said.

Sarah Paillou contributed to this report.