Moldova and Georgia ring alarm bells for the EU

Elections in Moldova and Georgia this week are turning into a sobering reality check for the European Union as it finds itself increasingly on the back foot in its battle for influence with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

For years, the EU has been confident that its liberal, democratic agenda will ultimately steer Georgia and Moldova away from the Kremlin’s orbit and toward the West — a confidence boosted by polls suggesting both countries have big popular majorities for EU membership.

This week’s elections now suggest that optimistic EU vision is increasingly uncertain. Moldova voted for EU membership by only the narrowest of margins on Sunday — with 50.4 percent of voters in favor — and the populist Georgian Dream party that is expected to win on Saturday is set to pursue an illiberal agenda that will make EU membership impossible.

For the EU, the determination of its adversary in Moscow is daunting.

It is evident that the Kremlin — despite its heavy commitments in Ukraine — is still willing to pour big money into vote buying and disinformation campaigns to reassert its stamp on former Soviet territories. In both Moldova and Georgia, Moscow is making headway with a propaganda narrative that countries pursuing a pro-EU or pro-NATO agenda are playing with fire, recommending neutrality as the antidote to conflict.

Aghast at the result, Moldova’s pro-EU President Maia Sandu complained of Russia’s “unprecedented assault on our country’s freedom and democracy.” While recent polls suggested a majority of some 60 percent were in favor of joining the bloc, it looked for much of the night as if the anti-EU camp would win.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was quick to stress the tight result was the result of Russian dirty tricks, and insisted Brussels would press ahead with getting Moldova into the bloc.

“In the face of Russia’s hybrid tactics, Moldova shows that it is independent, it is strong and it wants a European future,” she said.

Still, the result in Moldova lays bare the limits to EU influence just as Putin is styling himself as part of a broader anti-Western alliance.

On Tuesday, Putin will host Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and more than 15 other heads of state for talks in the Russian city of Kazan. Moscow has pushed for the admission of a handful of new countries into the BRICS format, designed to band developing economies together to challenge Euro-American interests, and wants to use it to challenge the U.S. dollar.

Bribes and disinformation

There is little doubt about the scale of Russian intervention in Moldova.

In a statement following the count, the leader of the National Democratic Institute’s observation mission, former Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, reported widespread efforts to undermine the process.

“The greatest threat to the integrity of these elections has been a broad and concerted campaign of malign foreign influence from Russia collaborating with Moldovan actors through information manipulation, vote buying, and other illicit financing of political activity,” he said.

To achieve even the slimmest of majorities in that context, other monitors said, was a significant achievement. “Moldovans demonstrated resilience in the face of unprecedented foreign interference,” said U.S. Congressman Peter Roskam, who led an International Republican Institute observer mission.

Moldovan officials repeatedly sounded the alarm over huge sums of Russian money being funnelled into the accounts of ordinary voters in the weeks leading up to the vote. The authorities accuse Moscow and its local proxies of seeking to use cash to push people into opposing EU membership and uniting behind a pro-Russian challenger standing against Sandu.

“We are talking about up to 20 percent of corrupted votes, and an estimated €150 million interference operation by Russia,” said Valeriu Pasha, program manager at the Moldova-based think-tank WatchDog.MD Community. “Without this massive vote bribing the result would look totally different. So in these very harsh conditions, the fact that we still have a majority yes-vote, is already a very good result.”

A transferable model

Speaking to POLITICO ahead of the vote on Sunday, former Moldovan Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu said the referendum had been called to “settle the domestic conversation in the country” before voters head to the polls in next year’s parliamentary elections, where Sandu and her allies face a host of pro-Russian opposition parties.

That gambit appears to have failed. Instead of demonstrating unity, it has created a dangerous new dividing line, and convinced the Kremlin it pays to try to swing the result.

“The preliminary election results highlight the challenges Brussels faces in extending EU membership to post-Soviet countries,” said Marta Mucznik, an analyst with Crisis Group. “With Moldova preparing for parliamentary elections in 2025, these divisions are likely to shape political discourse in the months ahead.”

That bodes ill for Georgia, where the Georgian Dream party is seeking a majority in parliamentary elections on Saturday, vowing to ban the entire opposition if it secures enough votes. The dramatic campaign comes amid warnings of state capture by Russia, as the country passed Moscow-inspired restrictions on Western-funded NGOs, the media and the LGBTQ+ community.

“It’s time Western policymakers woke up to the fact that Russia’s war isn’t just limited to Ukraine — it’s about taking on the democratic world anywhere that Moscow thinks it can exert influence,” said Ivana Stradner of Washington’s Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “And while risk-averse European and American officials think in terms of individual tactics, Putin has a whole strategy he’s using to try and win.”

For Sandu, it’s not just EU candidate nations that should be worried — or just smaller ones.

Everyone is at risk.

“It is true that you can damage the democratic process in a small country more easily,” the Moldovan president argued. “But once these practices are tested in smaller countries, they can be tried in other countries.”