Parliament won’t shoot down von der Leyen’s Commission picks 

BRUSSELS — If you’re looking for drama this week, don’t count on Brussels. 

Twenty-six incoming commissioners, one from each European Union country except Germany (their boss Ursula von der Leyen represents Berlin), will make or break their careers in exhaustive parliamentary hearings over the coming nine days.

From what some members of the European Parliament told POLITICO, it should all work out, making for a pretty boring political handover, with forces both in Brussels and globally playing into a potentially tedious hearing week.

“Unless something really wrong happens during the hearings, which of course can happen, we are supportive of the whole structure,” said French MEP Pascal Canfin, who hails from the liberal Renew Europe group. “I believe the result will be rather stable.”

The larger political families in the Parliament that supported von der Leyen, such as Renew, the Socialists and the center-right EPP, have a lot to lose if they attempt to take out commissioners from rival parties. That desire not to rock the boat is playing out amid a momentous U.S. election on Tuesday, increasing the sense of urgency to start the European Commission’s mandate by Dec. 1.

In sum, lawmakers agree there will be little appetite to reject commissioners, a marked departure from previous years. 

“The arithmetic of it forces everyone into a truce,” said one European People’s Party MEP, who was granted anonymity to speak freely.

Romanian Social Democrat MEP Victor Negrescu agreed.

“Due to the current political context, the fragmentation of the European Parliament and the format and calendar of the hearings, it is highly likely that all the commissioners will be approved without any problems,” said Negrescu, one of the Parliament’s vice presidents.

The Socialists have signaled it is imperative to secure the safe passage of their clutch of commissioners, above all Spain’s pick, Teresa Ribera, who will be in charge of climate and competition policy. 

That makes it less likely that they will pick a fight with the center-right EPP, which has claimed the lion’s share of commissioners, and which is itself mindful that Ursula von der Leyen, who decided the team’s shape and responsibilities, also hails from its own ranks.

But history suggests that the entire roster of commissioner nominees won’t emerge unscathed on Nov. 12, even if it only involves reshuffling a commissioner’s responsibilities or job title, rather than a wholesale rejection. During the same process five years ago, the European Parliament turned down an unprecedented three commissioners, and at least one prospective commissioner has been rejected every time since 2004. 

The political fireworks, if any happen, may erupt over Italy’s commissioner-designate Raffaele Fitto, who was nominated by hard-right Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, or Hungary’s Olivér Varhélyi, picked by Viktor Orbán for a second term in Brussels.

Even though Meloni’s European Conservatives and Reformists did not back von der Leyen this summer, her political family in the Parliament was awarded one of the most powerful posts in the EU executive’s power structure. 

Fitto is bolstered by the fact that three of the four largest political groups in the Parliament are on the center right or far right of the political spectrum. For some, that makes his confirmation hearing a litmus test of how far the new Parliament has swung to the right. His appointment could signal an end to the informal coalition that elected von der Leyen, which included the Socialists and the Greens.

Raphaël Glucksmann, the French S&D delegation leader, argued that von der Leyen and the EPP need to count on the Parliament’s pro-European majority of Socialists, liberals and Greens, instead of relying on ECR and other far-right groups to reach majorities.

“Fitto holding the position of executive VP is a red line for us,” said Glucksmann, vowing that the French S&D delegation would vote against the next Commission as a whole if Fitto is not demoted.

The Greens, liberals and Socialists are not calling in unison for Fitto to be rejected. Rather, they want him to be stripped of his potentially influential position as one of the six senior commissioners (four commissioners would report to him).

Another place where a unanimous green light for the commissioners may falter is around Várhelyi, Hungary’s commissioner-designate.

In a Parliament that has repeatedly criticized Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government, which nominated him, Várhelyi has given MEPs no end of excuses to give him a hard time — including when he was caught on a live microphone calling them “idiots” in 2023.

The alternative, though, might be just as unappealing, according to Danish MEP Anders Vistisen, chief whip of the hard-right Patriots for Europe political faction, to which Orbán’s Fidesz party belongs.

“If they decide to pick him out of the College just to humiliate the Patriots faction,” Vistisen said, “then of course we don’t see any obligation to facilitate a quick confirmation of the Commission.”