Romania’s far-right, pro-Russian lurch spells big trouble for EU and NATO

BRUSSELS — Georgia. Moldova. Now Romania?

Alarm bells are ringing in Brussels after a far-right, pro-Russia candidate came out of nowhere to win the first round of Romania’s presidential election Sunday.

The shock victory of ultranationalist Călin Georgescu is triggering fears that Moscow may be trying to draw NATO and EU member Romania — a Central and Eastern European heavyweight of 19 million people — into its camp following contested elections in Moldova and Georgia.

Reformist Elena Lasconi, who will face him in the runoff on Dec. 8, is directly warning that Romanians must now rally together to stop the country falling back under the thrall of Russia, which occupied it after World War II. She urged a crowd in Bucharest not to let frustration with the current establishment “become a vulnerability exploited by Russia.”

Sunday’s first round was a shock because Romania has been viewed as a reliable EU member and NATO ally — in sharp contrast to smaller countries such as Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria that have major problems over rule of law and pro-Russian leanings. If Bucharest were also to veer toward a more anti-EU, pro-Russian path, it would seriously undermine the EU’s ability to function, making it hard to build consensus among the member countries.

Georgescu, who doesn’t belong to a political party and has some 3.8 million likes on TikTok, in many ways fits the mold of the 2024 radical right-wing populist: He speaks plainly, shuns Western orthodoxy, is loathed by mainstream media, and is an EU- and NATO-skeptic.

“The result of this silent yet extremist, pro-Russian candidate is part of Russia’s hybrid war against European democracy,” said Siegfried Mureșan, a conservative Romanian lawmaker in the European Parliament.

Indeed, the surprise result in Romania coincides with broader attempts by Russia to bring countries inside the European Union or in its neighborhood into the pro-Moscow camp. 

Election observers have warned of efforts to influence the outcomes of recent elections in Moldova and Georgia. Meanwhile the leaders of Hungary and Slovakia, both in the EU, already espouse pro-Russian views and they could soon be joined by Czechia, if former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš wins parliamentary elections due next year.

“If you follow what the Russians do in this region, you know that Romania is super important for them,” said Milan Nič, an analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations. “Their plan is to cut Romania off from the Black Sea … it is the usual Russian playbook.”

Until now, Romania, which borders Ukraine on the eastern edge of the bloc, has played a supportive role in the West’s backing for Kyiv. The conflict has, for example, raised the strategic importance of the Mihail Kogălniceanu air base on the Black Sea.

But all that could be turned on its head if Georgescu wins. 

Concerns about possible yet unproven interference in Romania are driven by the fact that Georgescu surged to victory with 22.9 percent of the vote despite no party backing and polls completely missing his popularity.

“He is the product of the vacuum [in Romanian politics] and likely Russian money,” added Nič. “If you can spend so much money on TikTok all of a sudden, it raises questions.”

The ultranationalist candidate beat the liberal reformist candidate Lasconi, who came in second place with 19.2 percent of votes.

“Wakeup call”

Mureșan, a high-profile figure in the conservative European People’s Party, drew a link between Romania and Moldova, where pro-EU President Maia Sandu has repeatedly warned about major Russian efforts to sway elections in her country toward pro-Moscow candidates.

“Three weeks ago, Moldova rejected such influence and chose a pro-European president. Now Romanians must do the same,” added Mureșan, who belongs to Romania’s National Liberal Party (PNL). His party’s candidate came in fifth place with 8.8 percent support.

Now, the fear in Brussels is that Georgescu could prevail in the runoff round on Dec. 8, adding Romania to a growing list of countries whose leaders are critical of the EU and NATO and friendly toward Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Both Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico have slammed Western efforts to help Ukraine against Russia’s war of aggression. Georgescu has criticized the fact that the U.S. has an anti-missile shield based in Romania and described Putin as a “man who loved his country.”

“It’s a wakeup call — one of many,” added Nič.

Thanasis Bakolas, EPP secretary-general, warned that Georgescu’s performance was evidence of rising “extremism” throughout the EU. “This struggle against populism, against extremism — it’s never-ending,” he said. “The fight needs to go on.”

The EPP, the EU’s largest political group, had a responsibility to “act as the guarantor not only against extremes but also in support of a large and viable centrist coalition.”

Not everyone is overly worried that Georgescu will become Romania’s next leader. Traian Băsescu, president of Romania from 2004 to 2014, said he didn’t believe that Georgescu would prevail in the second round and that Romanians by and large were still “very positive” toward the EU and NATO.

But, he warned, Romanian voters were “very angry” that corruption had returned to their country and that the justice system was once again “under political control.”

This could lead to the defeat of the country’s ruling parties in the forthcoming parliamentary elections this Sunday, he said.

“What the two parties [in the governing coalition] have done in the last two years is a disaster,” he said, referring to the Social Democratic Party and the National Liberal Party. “I suspect they will lose power.”

After his win on Sunday, Georgescu won the endorsement of hard-right politician George Simion. If he got all of Simion’s votes in the second round, Georgescu would have 36.82 percent — just below the combined results of liberal reformist Lasconi and center-left Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, who won 19.2 and 19.15 percent respectively.

Much will boil down to whether some supporters of the traditional mainstream will switch to this week’s shock victor.