Shock: Gold-standard poll gives Harris slim lead over Trump — in Iowa

For the first time in nearly 30 years, Iowa isn’t considered among the presidential swing states. But maybe that’s a mistake. 

Typically the final Des Moines Register poll before Election Day is widely anticipated for its unique ability to predict the result. This year, it was mostly being ignored, since neither candidate this year is competing for Iowa’s electoral votes.

But the result — Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump, 47 percent to 44 percent, within the margin of error — raised eyebrows as soon as it was posted to the Register’s website Saturday night.

And maybe for good reason. This time four years ago, when it looked like Joe Biden was romping to a landslide victory over Trump, it was Selzer who delivered a reality check.

Her final poll for the Des Moines Register in Iowa showed Trump and the incumbent Republican senator with sizable leads, despite the conventional wisdom that both races were close — so close that Biden had just visited Des Moines the day before, four days before the election.

And her poll was right, further establishing her as something of a Midwestern oracle. Her reputation has been burnished by a series of spot-on polls, both in general elections and in the state’s first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses.

Even if Harris doesn’t win Iowa next week — and with a combined 9 percent choosing another candidate or undecided, it’s certainly possible things could change — the poll could presage greater-than-expected strength for the Democratic nominee in states with similar demographic profiles that are part of the battleground mix, like Wisconsin.

In fact, her poll four years ago was a canary in the coal mine that rosier surveys for Democrats across the Midwest wouldn’t hold up when the votes were tallied. And that’s exactly what happened: Biden lost Iowa by 9 points and Ohio by 8 points, despite other polls showing a close race. And his big leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all-but-evaporated when he won those states narrowly.

It’s just one poll, but it suggests Harris could actually overperform in some of those Midwest states. We’ll all find out soon enough if it’s pointing in the right direction or leading us astray.