The French prime minister will likely fall this week. So then what? 

PARIS — The end of Michel Barnier’s extremely brief time as France’s prime minister looks inevitable as his government hurtles toward a no-confidence vote that it is expected to lose later this week. 

Days of tension have culminated in a high-stakes vote in parliament that could trigger a financial crisis for the eurozone’s second-largest economy and send ripples of fear around the bloc. The French prime minister has been battling to reassure jittery markets and pass a budget that will fill a black hole in French finances.

But those efforts might now be wasted.  

On Monday, Barnier, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, used a controversial constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament and force through a social security financing bill. In response, the left-wing opposition put forward a no-confidence motion, which will be put to a vote on Wednesday or Thursday. 

Opposition forces, including the leftist New Popular Front coalition and the far-right National Rally, have warned they will vote to topple the government. 

“The French had enough of being thrashed and mistreated … we can’t leave things as they are,” National Rally leader Marine Le Pen told reporters on Monday as she announced that her party would vote to topple Barnier’s government. 

If the parliament does oust Barnier, it would be the first time a French government has suffered the humiliation of losing a no-confidence vote since 1962.

Here’s what to know about France’s latest political crisis.

Will the government fall this week? 

Almost certainly. Far-right leader Jordan Bardella has warned the government will fall unless there is “a last-minute miracle.”

No such miracle appears to be on its way. 

On Monday, the far-right National Rally tried to extract yet another concession from the government, asking that a decision to de-index pensions on inflation be deferred. But Barnier drew the line on a measure that would cost him several billions euros. 

It marked the end of a game of chicken between Barnier and Le Pen after the prime minister gave into a series of her demands, and even going so far as to name-check the far-right leader in a press statement on Monday. 

Barnier was appointed by President Emmanuel Macron in September in a last-ditch attempt to find a way out of the political crisis the French president himself had triggered by calling a snap election following a defeat in the European election.

But Barnier only enjoyed the fragile support of Macron’s coalition and the conservatives in parliament. With the New Popular Front, which won the most seats in the snap election, vowing to bring down the government, Barnier’s survival depended on the far-right leader holding fire. 

Le Pen now looks almost certain to pull the trigger. 

Will there be fresh elections?

No. Not for a good while. 

You might think that after weeks of political turmoil, now would be the time to go back to the voters, but that’s not the way it works in France. 

The ball will be back in Macron’s court. The president, whose mandate runs until 2027 whatever happens, can restart talks on appointing a new prime minister and government. 

But even if he wanted to, Macron can’t call a fresh parliamentary election because he triggered a snap vote in July. According to the French constitution, that means he can’t call a new ballot before next summer — which in turn means the political uncertainty and upheaval could drag on for weeks and even months. 

That’s unless … Macron himself throws in the towel and resigns, which would trigger a fresh presidential election. He has firmly denied that’s on the cards, but more and more voices are calling for him to step down. 

“It’s an idea that could start gaining traction,” said Benjamin Morel, a political scientist at Paris Panthéon-Assas University. “Marine Le Pen may start saying that she will topple every single government until Macron resigns.”

So Macron will just appoint a new prime minister, right? 

Yes, but it’s not that simple. 

The French National Assembly is divided into three political blocs: Macron’s centrists, the far-right National Rally, and the left-wing coalition. The three groups are poles apart on politics and refuse to work together, meaning that any new government could be toppled in days. 

“To appoint a new government, you need to find a political space to support it,” Morel said. “But the centrists can’t support even a soft center-left candidate such as [former PM] Bernard Cazeneuve because they hate the far-left France Unbowed party” which is allied with the Socialists, he said. 

Macron could appoint another right-wing prime minister, much like Barnier, who would have the support of the centrists and the conservatives, and who, also like Barnier, could try to curry favor with Le Pen. 

But that person would have to make substantial concessions to the far-right leader after this week’s showdown, in order to survive. 

Otherwise, it would be like asking Le Pen to “eat her own words,” Morel said.

Barnier may stay on as a caretaker prime minister for several weeks, as Macron hunts for the elusive politician who can find a way out of the deadlock.

Are we heading toward a Greek-style eurozone crisis ?

Not yet, but things could rapidly get worse.  

The political crisis couldn’t come at a worse moment. France is weakened by a tremendous deficit that Barnier was trying to rein in with massive spending cuts and tax hikes. The collapse of Barnier’s government is already scaring financial markets — so much so that on Monday they considered Greek bonds a better credit than French bonds. 

In recent weeks, Barnier’s allies and observers have repeatedly warned that France’s political crisis could turn into a new eurozone crisis. 

Markets have been unsettled by the prospect of Barnier’s collapse, with the index of the country’s 40 biggest companies, the CAC40, falling by 0.2 percent on Monday. But France is still not on the brink of a financial crisis, or at least not yet, investors say. As it confirmed France’s credit rating last week, ratings agency S&P said the country’s “economy remains resilient despite political uncertainty.”

Barnier’s possible collapse is also sending shivers down the spines of European Commission officials. After placing France under an excessive deficit procedure for overspending last year, Brussels welcomed Barnier’s budget plans, which aim to bring the country’s deficit down to 5 percent of GDP after reaching over 6 percent this year. 

As he tried to convince Le Pen not to vote him down, Barnier caved in to two National Rally requests that will only make the country’s deficit worse: He abandoned a planned tax hike on electricity, and decided to keep reimbursing patients for certain types of drugs. But Le Pen is asking for other costly measures, such as maintaining a January inflation adjustment for pensions that Barnier proposed to delay. 

Is France risking a U.S.-style shutdown?

Not really. 

If Barnier’s government is toppled, its budget plans for 2025 will also be rejected just days before an end-of-year deadline.

But Barnier or his successor can still ensure that France has a budget for next year, thanks to some stopgap mechanisms. The main one consists of putting forward a “special law” allowing the executive to effectively carry over the previous year’s budget for a few months until a new one is approved.

That law would be tabled by France’s new government or by the outgoing one, depending on how quickly French President Emmanuel Macron appoints a new prime minister.

The special law would also need parliamentary approval, but Marine Le Pen’s party previously said it would back it under certain conditions. 

That scenario is likely to worry Brussels and financial markets, however, who want Paris to cut its debt. Copy-pasting this year’s budget onto next year’s will only inflate the country’s deficit. 

Without the drastic measures that Barnier has proposed, it would even ramp up to 7 percent of France’s GDP, according to Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin. 

Geoffrey Smith contributed to this report