The powerlessness of Germany’s next chancellor

BERLIN ― Friedrich Merz, Germany’s likely next chancellor, is campaigning on his own version of MAGA, vowing to restore his country’s lost sense of greatness in profoundly insecure times.

But given the immense global challenges that Germany now confronts, from industrial decline to war in Europe, Merz may find himself virtually powerless to realize his nostalgic vision of restoring economic growth and a sense of security.

“Europe and the world should once again look at Germany with admiration and not with bewilderment,” Merz said in a video message after announcing his candidacy for the chancellor role earlier this year. “I will put all my strength,” he added, into building “a Germany that we can be proud of again.”

Merz and his conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) appear set to assume power within months following the November collapse of Germany’s left-leaning three-party coalition. With an early election slated for Feb. 23, Germany’s conservatives are far ahead in the polls on 32 percent support.

That puts Merz, a 69-year-old corporate lawyer by trade, on the cusp of fulfilling his longtime dream of becoming chancellor. He could scarcely have imagined, however, that his dream would come true at a time of such peril for Europe — and for Germany in particular.

The country is facing vexing economic and political woes while the EU confronts its own array of difficulties — among them the threat of a new debt crisis emanating from France; a rising far right; Russian sabotage and influence operations; and an escalating war in Ukraine. With Germany’s economic engine sputtering and its politics increasingly fractured by the rise of radical parties, Berlin simply lacks the strength to lead Europe out of the morass.

The pillars are crumbling

The problem for Merz is that despite his ambition and the likelihood of a clear governing mandate, Germany is now uniquely vulnerable to global events beyond the immediate control of any national leader.

For decades the country’s security and prosperity have relied on three pillars: a U.S. defense guarantee; virtually unfettered international trade, allowing its export-oriented economy to flourish; and cheap energy from Russia to bolster German industry.

As Merz prepares to take up the reins and vows to lead Germany in a fundamentally new direction, the country lacks a sweeping vision to replace those outmoded pillars.

Merz has outlined a conservative vision for how he’ll govern. He plans to cut welfare benefits, sharply reduce the number of asylum seekers coming to Germany, cut regulations to incentivize more private investment, and make military spending a higher budget priority while maintaining fiscal discipline.

But it’s unclear whether those policies, even if realized, would suffice to meet the monumental challenges Germany now faces.

The end of the Merkel era

Merz’s core mission is to undo the legacy of Angela Merkel, his CDU predecessor who served as chancellor for 16 years.

After winning a party power struggle with Merz back in 2002, Merkel effectively exiled him from the CDU leadership. After years on the political sidelines, Merz left the German parliament to go into business, eventually chairing the German arm of U.S. investment fund BlackRock.

But as Merkel drew the CDU toward the center and allowed over a million asylum seekers to enter Germany during the refugee crisis of 2015, Merz and other hard-right conservatives quietly stewed. Merkel’s centrism, they believed, had opened up room on Germany’s political spectrum for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) — currently the second strongest party in the country, according to polls.

Shortly after the 2021 election that brought Chancellor Olaf Scholz to power, CDU members overwhelmingly elected Merz to lead the party, cementing his political comeback and drawing the party back to the right.

Merz’s sharp-tongued and sometimes populist rhetoric also represents a significant break from the reserved tones of Scholz and Merkel. German voters don’t seem particularly fond of him — other conservative politicians are more popular, according to surveys — but Merz, his party colleagues say, is still the right person for the job.

“Friedrich Merz is not really very beloved, but he is respected,” said Günther Oettinger, a former senior CDU politician and European commissioner. “He doesn’t win over the hearts of the people. But the situation in Germany is difficult. We’re in a recession. We have an unsolved migration problem. We’re losing competitiveness. We have a failed energy transition. People now need a restorer. And that’s exactly his profile.”

CDU politicians also believe that Merz’s brand of conservativism and blunt style will position him far better to deal with Donald Trump, who harbored a particular antipathy toward Merkel and Germany during his first term as U.S. president.

Merz also believes he’ll be able to stand up to Trump far better than Scholz. “Trump will drop you like a lightweight,” Merz told the left-leaning chancellor in a recent parliamentary debate.

The question is whether Merz would fare any better in his dealings with the next American president.

Making ‘deals’ with Trump

In both economic and security terms, Trump’s return poses a unique existential threat to Germany.

At a time when Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasing his assaults on Ukraine and conducting a hybrid war on Europe, Trump has repeatedly assailed Germany for being “delinquent” on defense spending. Earlier this year he said he had encouraged Moscow to “do whatever the hell they want” to NATO countries that “don’t pay.”

The president-elect has also threatened to withdraw U.S. military support for Ukraine, a move that would leave Europe on the hook even as Germany’s intelligence agency warns the Kremlin is preparing for the possibility of a “direct military confrontation with NATO.”

Trump’s threats to slap tariffs on European goods could hit Germany’s export-oriented industrial sector particularly hard in the midst of an economic contraction that is seeing factory closures and mass layoffs. The Munich-based Ifo Institute for Economic Research estimates that future tariffs could cost Germany €33 billion, and that exports to the U.S. could drop by 15 percent.

Merz has vowed to stand up to Trump by advocating Germany’s foreign policy interests more assertively. When it comes to the details, however, Merz has offered only vague promises to meet the next American president “with an upright posture and clarity,” and a willingness to cut “deals.”

Merz has suggested he will buy American weapons in order to please Trump, while CDU politicians say they will urge the president-elect to forgo tariffs on Europe by arguing that free trade between the EU and the U.S. makes sense if both want to reduce their dependence on China.

“Let’s rather facilitate transatlantic trade, as we have a common challenge to reduce our economic dependencies on China, especially in the area of raw materials and critical infrastructure,” said Thomas Silberhorn, a conservative Bavarian politician, summarizing the arguments Merz will make. “For us to succeed, we must become stronger in transatlantic trade and not weaken each other.”

Still, Germany remains at the mercy of Trump’s decisions. After decades of post-Cold War disarmament, its army is incapable of fighting an extended war, and even in 2023 Berlin spent only 1.5 percent of GDP on defense ($66.8 billion). Meanwhile, convincing Trump of the benefits of free trade, if only with Europe, seems a long shot given that tariffs are the basis of the U.S. president-elect’s economic agenda.

Merz still insists Germany can thrive despite the global challenges.

“We have to go from being a sleeping middle power to a leading middle power again,” he told German magazine Stern.

But as the world returns to great-power rivalry and Europe suffers from broader political and economic weakness, Germany’s fate as a middle power may largely rest on forces beyond its borders.