The world waits on America

Tens of millions of voters go to the polls as a vicious campaign between Trump and Harris draws to a close.

By TIM ROSS
in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

^{Illustration by Katy Williamson for POLITICO}

It may be the end of the beginning. 

After the most dramatic of election contests, in which one candidate dropped out with barely three months to go and his rival was almost assassinated, the campaign to become the next president of the United States will soon be over. 

Over, that is, bar the counting. And the likely re-counting, legal challenges, contested rulings, appeals, angry protests and wild conspiracy theories to explain how the losing side was robbed of victory. 

On Monday night, the two candidates closed their campaigns by focusing on the biggest prize of all the battleground states: Pennsylvania. With 19 votes in the U.S. electoral college up for grabs, the state is expected to be decisive, offering the winner a clear path to power. 

A packed final rally for Vice President Kamala Harris in Philadelphia, the state’s biggest city, featured music from Ricky Martin and Lady Gaga, and a speech from Harris’ husband Doug Emhoff. TV megastar Oprah Winfrey also spoke, introducing Harris to an ecstatic crowd. 

The audience, numbering in the tens of thousands, joined in the singing at the “Rocky Steps” leading up to the Museum of Art, the city landmark made famous by Sylvester Stallone’s boxing film. People had waited around four hours for the vice president. 

Harris, the Democratic party candidate, described the famous steps as a tribute to those who start as “the underdog” and climb to victory. “The race ain’t over yet,” she said. “And we must finish strong. And this could be one of the closest races in history. Every vote matters.”

“You will decide the outcome of this election, Pennsylvania.”

In his last campaign speech in the state in Pittsburgh, before finishing up in Michigan, Republican former President Donald Trump suggested Harris should try a boxing bout against Mike Tyson, the former heavyweight champion and a convicted rapist. “Put Mike in the ring with Kamala. That will be interesting,” he said.  Some present observed Trump’s crowds had been smaller in recent days, while others said he seemed tired.  

For a country that is still Western democracy’s best hope, the U.S. has given the world a sorry display of what freedom and government by the people look like in 2024. 

Trump’s campaign spread bald lies and spouted racism, pedaling the myth that his rightful victory was stolen four years ago. Despite being wounded by a gunman once, and later hunted by a second would-be assassin, the Republican candidate publicly imagined others training weapons on his opponents. 

As the election approached, Harris’ campaign was largely reduced to calling Trump a fascist and a felon and saying, effectively, “I’m not him,” which never seemed like an argument likely to enthuse more than half of the country.

Around 160 million people are expected to choose which of these two candidates they want as their leader. Almost half of them, some 78 million, have voted already. Yet pollsters are reluctant to predict who will win, saying they are essentially inseparable in seven key swing states in the Rust Belt of former industrial heartlands and the southern Sun Belt. 

If the results that come in late Tuesday and into Wednesday confirm the picture of a country starkly divided, with no clear victor, the real decision is unlikely to be one made by voters alone. Both sides have hired armies of lawyers to work on challenging the election process where results are close. 

The ensuing legal arguments could take many days or even weeks to resolve. In 2000, it took a whole month before the Supreme Court eventually decided that George W. Bush would move into the White House after eking out a narrow Electoral College victory while losing the popular vote to Vice President Al Gore. 

If it’s not as close as predicted, major questions will be asked of the pollsters. Some analysts already think the polls are too similar to each other to be true. 

A world-defining vote

Globally, the contest could hardly be more important. The future of everything from U.S. support for Ukraine in its war against Russia to the global trading system is riding on the outcome. Trump, who has repeatedly professed his admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, has ominously promised to end the two-year-old war in Ukraine within a day of returning to office.

American policy in the Middle East, where desperate conflicts between Israel and its enemies are threatening to spiral out of control, also hangs in the balance.

The economic impact could also be huge. American relations with China — and with Europe — rest on whether Trump wins and implements his proposed harsh tariff regimes.

The shadow of the Jan. 6, 2021, riot on Capitol Hill has loomed over the whole campaign. 

Trump and his supporters, including Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, have noisily and repeatedly claimed that vote irregularities are undermining the election — as if to prepare the ground for another attempted revolt against the officially declared result. 

Security forces are getting ready in case there is violence on Election Day. The National Guard’s unit in Washington, D.C., will have reinforcements ready for the inauguration of the next president in January, officials said on Monday. Military guardsmen are also reportedly on standby in Washington state, Oregon and Nevada. 

Lisa Kashinsky contributed reporting from Pittsburgh.