Trump can’t deliver a peace deal, says ex-Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba

DÜSSELDORF, Germany — Former Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has no hope that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump can broker a peace deal.

In a wide-ranging — and pessimistic — interview with POLITICO, Kuleba insisted that Russian President Vladimir Putin was in no mood to strike a deal, and said Trump instead risked collapsing Ukrainian front lines if the new U.S. administration starved Kyiv of weapons.

Kuleba also questioned the resolve of Ukraine’s Western partners — particularly Germany, which awaits early elections — and complained that while Russia has managed to find allies such as North Korea to send troops, Kyiv’s allies have been inconsistent and unreliable on arms support.

As for Trump’s promise of a swift deal to end the war, Kuleba, who left his post in September, said he couldn’t see Putin agreeing.

“Putin still believes he can snuff out Ukrainian statehood and crush Ukraine as an independent democracy, and he thinks he’s one step away from exposing the West as weak,” he said.

“Ukraine is a personal obsession for Putin, but crushing Ukraine is also a means to accomplish his grand goal — to show to the world how the West is incapable of defending itself or what it stands for.”

As Kuleba spoke in Düsseldorf, shoppers outside were enjoying a bustling Christmas market where parents jostled for seasonal gifts as their children stood transfixed by a colorful carousel.

The scene was a far cry from the blood and grief of Ukraine’s struggle for survival, and from the grim picture painted by Ukraine’s former top diplomat as to what might unfold after the holiday season, once Trump is back in the White House.

For Kuleba, the disconnect was obvious.

“People in Europe can be pissed off with me, but I kept saying, and I will keep saying, that the truth is today Russia has a friend ready to send its soldiers to die for Russia[’s] war,” he said, whereas Ukraine’s friends won’t even send it the weapons it needs.

A deal Zelenskyy can’t sign

Trump vowed on the campaign trail to end the war in Ukraine and, in characteristic fashion, boasted that he could do so in a day. But he has been frugal with the details as to how he will silence the guns. Last month, JD Vance, the vice president-elect, said any deal would likely involve Ukraine conceding territory — in other words accepting that Russia should keep all or part of the 20-some percent of the country it now occupies. He also envisaged some kind of demilitarized zone.

Kuleba has said that won’t work, given that Putin isn’t interested in diplomacy and is instead trying to wear the West down — in the belief that he can get everything he wants. The former foreign minister also can’t see how President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, his former boss, can sign any pact accepting the annexation of Crimea or of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, despite his claim to be looking for diplomatic solutions.

Zelenskyy suggested earlier this month that the war will end “faster” thanks to Trump. In a radio interview with Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne he added: “We must do everything to ensure that the war ends next year through diplomatic means.” Whether the Ukraine president really believes a negotiated settlement is possible, or is merely trying to appear constructive to appease Trump is unclear — according to the counsel he has received, he shouldn’t be the first to say no to Trump and should let the Russians appear to be the unreasonable party.

Either way, Kuleba said, it is inconceivable that Zelenskyy can ink a deal that surrenders territory. “The Russians keep the Donbas, they keep Crimea, no NATO membership. Can Zelenskyy sign? He cannot because of the Constitution. And because it will be the end of Zelenskyy politically,” Kuleba said flatly.

Kuleba’s pessimism about the prospects for a negotiated end to the war carries weight — he remains widely respected in Western capitals for his effectiveness in advocating for Ukraine. To the regret of some Western partners and to the dismay of Ukraine’s opposition, Kuleba resigned in September in what friends described as a forced departure amid a controversial cabinet shake-up engineered by Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy’s powerful chief of staff.

Kuleba declined to comment on his resignation, but did say: “Zelenskyy has to let strong people back into his government.”

Starved of arms

One of Kuleba’s biggest fears is that Trump will withhold arms and ammunition, or at best put Ukraine on a starvation diet to make it more compliant if, as is likely, his peace bid goes awry. If that happens, Kuleba warned, Kyiv’s prospects will be dire.

“The front line in the Donbas will collapse and the Russians will be at the gates of Dnipro, Poltava and Zaporizhzhia,” he warned. “That will be the most dangerous moment for Ukraine in this war.”

Last week, for the first time in the war, Russia targeted Dnipro with an intercontinental ballistic missile equipped with multiple warheads, and has since threatened to launch others. Russia has also deployed an estimated 10,000 North Korean troops in its own western Kursk region, to help eject Ukrainian troops from a small bridgehead they established inside Russia during a surprise August cross-border invasion.

In response, and only after months of lobbying by the Ukrainians, President Joe Biden gave his approval for Kyiv to use American-supplied long-range missiles to strike targets inside Russia. 

Kuleba said he expects the escalation to continue but that he doesn’t think it will slip out of control, noting that all sides are clearly calibrating their actions and signaling their intentions to reduce the likelihood of a miscalculation that could lead to a catastrophic outcome. Moreover, Kyiv doesn’t have free rein to use the long-range missiles its allies have provided, but is instead constrained to use them only to protect its Kursk bridgehead. Meanwhile, the Kremlin informed Washington in advance of its intention to launch an ICBM.

If Trump does starve Ukraine of arms, how Europe reacts will be crucial, Kuleba added.

“The big unknown is how the European Union is going to behave.”

Kuleba said he remained unsure of whether Europe will step up and compensate for the loss or reduction of Ukraine’s U.S. backing. “If they find a way to continue supplies and increase them, that will buy Ukraine more time,” he said. “The biggest unknown in the equation is how much Europe will be ready to do so. Europeans will have two choices. They can either pursue a wait-and-see strategy and follow Trump’s lead, or they accept the fact that they have to bear greater share of responsibility.”

West doesn’t know what it’s fighting for

On its own, the EU cannot replace what will be lost if the United States charts another course, he cautioned. “But it depends on the European capacity and readiness to increase dramatically its own production of weapons within a short period of time,” he added. “It is easier to forecast developments in the U.S. than in Europe, as weird as it may sound, because of the complexity of Europe.”

He said he was confident that France, Britain, and the Nordic and Baltic countries will want to step up their support, but cautioned Germany was now a problem “because of the elections.”

Kuleba also voiced disappointment that many in the West have not grasped the importance and the consequences of the war: “You cannot win a war where Russia clearly knows what its strategic goal is in every detail; [where] Ukraine knows what its strategic goal is in every detail; but [where] the West, without whom Ukraine cannot win, does not know what it is fighting for.

“This is the real tragedy of this war.”

Striking a rare note of optimism, he savored the prospect of the Russian leader’s mishandling Trump, and said there is always a chance of “Putin making a mistake that pisses Trump off, which is entirely possible.”

But in general he said he was more hopeful of a mistake by Putin than a show of resilience by the West.

He disputed, for example, a remark made last week by former Ukrainian armed forces commander General Valery Zaluzhny, who said “the Third World War has begun.” Kuleba said he disagreed “for one simple reason, because the West is not psychologically ready to fight.”

“If you ask me what was the biggest mistake of the West in the past year, I would say the fierce public denunciation by European leaders of [French President] Emmanuel Macron’s proposal to send troops to Ukraine. I have no doubt that Putin loved it,” he said.

“For me it was shocking.”