Trump threatens to be good for Ukraine, actually

Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor at POLITICO Europe.

If U.S. President-elect Donald Trump manages to engineer a peace deal and bring the Ukraine war to a close he’ll likely get no thanks for it — even though he’d be absolving Western powers of their empty promises and freeing them from an unwinnable war.

Trump’s reelection has now clearly highlighted the West’s folly in promising to stick with this war until Ukraine returns to its 1991 borders. Some leaders had also promised speedy NATO membership, though that was never likely in the foreseeable future — if at all — with or without Trump in the White House.

The mantra that Western powers would back Ukraine for “as long as it takes” was always suspect too, as elections inevitably roll around and have consequences. So was the frequent assertion that no one should push Ukraine into talks because whoever pays the piper calls the tune.

And now, for all the overt hand-wringing over the U.S. election and what it means for Ukraine, some European quarters— even Kyiv, for that matter — are now secretly relieved by the prospect of Trump bringing the war to an end.

After all, if he’s successful, European leaders and American hawks will have an alibi, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will have cover from likely angry front-line Ukrainian soldiers. They’ll all blame him for the broken promises, for the loss of the Donbas and Crimea’s continued annexation — because that’s what it will take to ink a deal. That, and an agreement that Ukraine won’t be joining NATO — neutrality will be a firm concession Moscow will demand.

Some call this an ugly deal. And it is.

In fact, it will undermine Western credibility and it’s a crying shame we are where we are. But if you run down your military forces and arms production for decades, fail to draw enforceable red lines and don’t ask hard questions before making promises or work out what it will take, this is what happens.

Of course, this means Russian President Vladimir Putin’s thuggishness will be rewarded, that there will be no accountability for the bestial nature of his army’s atrocious behavior or the unlawful, detestable deportations from occupied parts of Ukraine to Russia. The axis of autocrats will be emboldened in their determination to smash the old global order.

But there’s no other alternative. Short of a “forever war” or Western powers becoming combatants themselves — or at least putting their economies on a war footing to supply Ukraine with much more than they currently are — that’s the cold hard reality.

And according to a Republican foreign policy expert familiar with Zelenskyy and his circle, Kyiv understands this. Asking to remain anonymous in order to speak candidly, Kyiv now reckons Trump may well turn out to be a better option than Harris, he said.

“At best, Harris would have maintained Joe Biden’s approach — that would have been her policy, and it would have amounted to Ukraine’s slow death. And not so slow anymore — the pace of the Russian gains is quickening,” he noted.

“Also, picture this: Harris having won and Republicans controlling one or both houses of Congress. Under those circumstances, Harris wouldn’t have been able to get any additional assistance through Congress. At least now, with Trump, he can snap his fingers, and the Republicans in the House will vote for more security assistance to Ukraine,” he added.

Plus, Trump doesn’t intend to just throw in the towel. He wants the war to end, but he’s not going to starve Ukraine of arms and supplies at this stage — because as a dealmaker, he knows a Ukrainian collapse would mean Putin calling the shots at the negotiation table.

“Trump has some self-interest in this,” the Republican fixer said. He prides himself on being a master dealmaker and doesn’t want to be seen striking an awful agreement. And over the course of his phone calls with Zelenskyy, and their recent meeting in New York, “he’s instilled some confidence” in the Ukrainian leader that he won’t just abandon Ukraine.

Mike Pompeo, secretary of State in Trump’s first administration, is of the same opinion: “President Trump is not going to allow Vladimir Putin to roll through Ukraine,” he said Monday. “Withdrawing funding from the Ukrainians would result in that, and he will be told that by his entire team. It’s not his M.O. to allow that to happen.”

The danger, though, is that Zelenskyy — also a salesman, the “greatest” in history, according to Trump — doesn’t give enough ground and Trump starts seeing Ukraine as the problem.

“The Ukrainians need to make sure Trump doesn’t see them as the obstacle to peace, and they shouldn’t be the first to say no, even when some silly ideas are thrown at them. They need the Russians to keep saying no to him, so the Ukrainians appear the reasonable party. Then Trump will conclude that the only way to bring the Russians to the table is to help the Ukrainians,” the fixer told POLITICO.

But as of yet, Trump doesn’t have a detailed plan, and opinions among his advisers vary — though they do understand the military reality on the ground. Despite some media reports, Trump hasn’t yet designated a team to handle a peace initiative either. However, Ukraine is being told it will have to make serious territorial concessions, and that the prize for doing so will be 80 percent of the country remaining free and independent, said another Republican familiar with the conversations being held within MAGA circles.

So far, there’s no one tipped or announced for top national security roles in the new administration who would object to a push for such a deal. But Kyiv has been heartened there are hawks among his picks so far.

After Trump’s win, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who’s being tipped as the new secretary of State, said that Russia’s war against Ukraine had reached a “stalemate” that’s costing lives and “needs to be brought to a conclusion.” He described Ukrainians as “incredibly brave and strong,” but also noted “the reality of the war.”

Zelenskyy understands that too — not that he’s going to shout it from the rooftops. As war-weariness mounts, public opinion in Ukraine has been changing, especially among the young, who are the most willing to accept limited outcomes. According to a poll conducted this summer, only 40 percent of those aged 18 to 25 think Ukraine should fight until it liberates all its territory.

Another survey from earlier this year showed that 72 percent of respondents agree that Ukraine should look for a diplomatic solution as well — a notable increase from May 2022. Similarly, a July survey from ZN.ua media found that 44 percent of Ukrainians think it’s time for peace negotiations — again, up from the summer before.

But what Kyiv fears most is that any secured deal will turn into an unsustainable peace — that Putin will just regroup and take another crack at Ukraine down the line. So, the big question is how to ensure this is more than an interregnum and what Kyiv is left with can develop unhindered and untouched by Moscow.