Ursula von der Leyen

Nearly 75 years after the signing of its founding declaration, the European Union is in serious trouble. 

What was once a union of economic powerhouses is now a stagnant collection of countries lagging behind dynamic global rivals. Popular discontent is fueling growing political polarization and the rise of ultranationalist leaders whose commitment to the bloc’s fundamental values is questionable. Europe’s prized welfare state model risks being destabilized by a rapidly aging population that appears keen to ban the migration that could help it address the continent-wide demographic crisis.

Just beyond the EU’s borders, wars rage in Ukraine and the Middle East, and there is concern over whether the bloc could resist an enemy attack, especially with the reelection of Donald Trump as United States president placing Washington’s commitment to the bloc in serious doubt. With France’s Emmanuel Macron politically neutered and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz headed for an electoral wipeout, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen appears to be the only adult left to lead Europe through the perils that lie ahead.

The 66-year-old German politician’s emergence as one of the bloc’s most influential leaders isn’t something most people expected. Just five years ago she was a weak minister in German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Cabinet; her selection was a surprise compromise and was met withcynical smirks from onlookers who expected she would be a puppet controlled by national leaders in Paris and Berlin.

Instead, during her first term as Commission president, “VDL” took on major crises like the Covid pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and came out stronger each time, transforming what her predecessors had defined as a boring, bureaucratic post into a much more political — and powerful — position.

Von der Leyen’s challenge is that her place at the top of the EU’s de facto power structure is less a reflection of her strength than of the disarray and distraction afflicting the rest of the bloc. And her second term is likely to test her abilities to their limits.

The Commission’s president wants to transform the EU into a more dynamic and strategically relevant entity. But while she’s proven capable of sprinting to address unprecedented crises, she’s yet to demonstrate she’s equally able to take on the marathon-length systemic reforms the bloc so desperately needs. To carry out her promises, von der Leyen will have to convince frugal countries to free up cash, persuade the beneficiaries of EU largesse to give up their privileges and retool an organization conceived as a peace project so that it’s ready for war.

In Brussels, von der Leyen has centralized control over her institution, putting in place a structure among the 26 commissioners who report to her that will allow her to reign as a sort of absolutist sun queen from whom all power flows. That sets her up to crank out proposals for transformative legislation, but turning them into reality will require her to bring along national leaders in the European Council and lawmakers in the European Parliament.

As a political appointee serving a five-year term, von der Leyen is buffered from the prevailing winds of growing populism and ultranationalism. That’s not true for many of her interlocutors. Indeed, the landmark legislation from her first term, the European Green Deal, is in the process of being watered down by many of the purported allies that make up her nominal base of support.

Fans of von der Leyen insist that she’s well-prepared for the task ahead of her, describing her as an indefatigable force of nature with a deep sense of responsibility and an insane work ethic. But detractors argue those same qualities mark her as somebody who struggles to listen, and who more easily makes enemies than friends — problematic traits given the immensity of the job that lies before her.

Check out the full POLITICO 28: Class of 2025, and read the Letter from the Editors for an explanation of the thinking behind the ranking.