US ‘likely’ to pledge new climate target, says White House

BAKU, Azerbaijan — The United States is preparing to announce a stronger target to cut its planet-warming pollution despite Donald Trump’s imminent return, the White House told POLITICO Wednesday.

The announcement would fulfill the country’s obligations under the Paris climate agreement — a global pact to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial temperature — and set a 2035 emissions reduction target.

Trump, however, has vowed to withdraw from the deal once he re-enters the White House, leaving some to wonder if the U.S. would issue a 2035 target. The plans are due in February, just after Trump will take office.

A White House official confirmed that conversations are underway on the new target, dubbed the nationally determined contribution (NDC) in climate diplomacy parlance.

“We are doing an analysis on what the United States should do and what is possible with subnational action,” the official said in an email to POLITICO, highlighting the work that state and city governments might do absent the federal government. “This is likely to take the form of an NDC, but no final decision has been made.”

The White House made the statement in response to comments White House national climate adviser Ali Zaidi gave to Thursday’s POLITICO Power Play podcast on the sidelines of global climate talks here known as COP29.

“We are unambiguously showing up here,” Zaidi said. “Every delegation, every door we knock on with a clear message: the U.S. will be advancing a one-and-a-half degree aligned nationally determined contribution, and the rest of the world should do the same.” 

Zaidi’s remark comes as President Joe Biden’s administration enters a lame-duck period — and as U.S. diplomats at the United Nations COP29 climate talks in Azerbaijan continue to participate in negotiations aimed at curbing rising climate pollution.

One big question hanging over the conference has been whether Biden’s team would — or could — do anything on its way out to try and salvage its climate agenda. POLITICO reported on Tuesday that the U.S. had dropped its push to gather countries and jointly pledge sharper emissions cuts.  

Green groups have been pressuring the Biden administration to use its remaining time in power to finalize environmental standards and guidance, including the 2035 target, before Trump starts trying to bludgeon Biden’s climate work.

Trump has called climate change a hoax and is assembling a cabinet to help him roll back scores of environmental rules.

Activists say announcing a 2035 target before Trump’s return would set the bar for what is possible, and send a strong signal to other countries. Yet those countries may also simply dismiss the pledge, knowing it may never be delivered.

“It is a nonsense at this stage, unfortunately,” said a senior delegate from a Latin American country.

America’s current NDC calls for at least 50 percent emission cuts by 2030 from 2005 levels. Keeping those plans in line with a 1.5C rise would see the U.S. draw a straight line from that target to 2050, when greenhouse gas emissions are meant to be zeroed out.

Modeling by the Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland shows that a feasible and ambitious NDC would aim for 65 percent emissions reductions by 2035. The Natural Resources Defense Council has called for cuts of at least 65 percent.

John Podesta, Biden’s adviser for international climate policy, told reporters earlier this week that it would also send a powerful signal if China’s own 2035 plan is aligned with the 1.5C goal. But Beijing’s lead climate envoy Liu Zhemin has expressed concern that Trump’s election means a reversal in U.S. climate policy.