What Are Your Actual Chances of Winning the Lottery?

Could it be you?

The dream of winning ‘the lottery’ is so ingrained in our culture that many people do not even think playing it is gambling. The lottery companies go hard with advertising messages selling the dream. The UK National Lottery lures us with the strap line ‘It Could Be You’ while funding good causes; the feelgood factor allows us to wander off into flights of imagination and fantasy.

Who hasn’t said, ‘If I won the lottery, I’d buy a house, travel the world, buy my mum a new home, invest in a stunning piece of contemporary art, or trade in my old car for a hot new model? Whether we pick weekly numbers or pick up a scratchcard when we go shopping, the dream is a reality until the result is revealed. We know the chances are infinitesimal, but still, we play.

Many entrepreneurs would rather gamble on themselves, which is why so many people decide to start up their own businesses. About 90% of startups fail – 10% within the first year, regardless of industry sector.

So, are we better off playing a lottery or betting on ourselves?  After all, someone does have to win, and maybe it could be you! Perhaps a blend of entrepreneurialism and a fairy dust sprinkling of lottery luck could allow us to spread our bets. But what are the actual chances of winning the lottery, and does it matter which lottery we play?

How do lottery odds work

The chances of winning depend on the individual lottery, but the odds are usually one in millions, tens, or even hundreds of millions. Usually, the bigger the promised prize, the longer the odds are. The probability of winning is the ratio between the number of number combinations that make up the prize and the total number of possible combinations from all the lottery numbers.

Most lotteries have one winning combination, which is not predetermined but is drawn from a set of balls or live tickets. People have already locked in their numbers, so it is all down to probability. The probability of winning the top prize is one in the number of total possible combinations.

What are your chances of winning the Powerball lottery

Looking at the Powerball lottery, the probability of hitting all six numbers and winning the first prize is one in 292,201,338.

There are five white numbers to be drawn from balls numbered one to sixty-nine and one red ‘Powerball’ numbered from one to twenty-six.

• The second prize can be claimed if you get all five white balls matched – now the odds are one on a mere 11,688,053
• The third prize level is triggered if you match four white numbers and the red number drops below one in a million at one in 913,129.
• And the fourth prize has a one in 36,525 chance of winning.

You might now be feeling that the odds are moving in your favor, but then, when you compare it to other extraordinary events, you can see that it is more likely that you will be hit by lightning than even winning the fourth prize in the Powerball lottery. Sometimes, pure numbers can seem overwhelming, and it is easier to understand the odds of winning the lottery visualized!

The chances of being struck by lightning

The US National Weather Service has the odds of someone being struck by lightning once in an 80-year lifetime are one in 15,300. So, based on those statistics, you are 19,100 times more likely to be struck by lightning than winning the first prize in Powerball’s Grand draw with one set of numbers chosen in a given draw.

What about the chance of being struck by a Meteorite?

So, no one expects to be struck by a meteorite. It probably does not even register in our thoughts of what might happen to us. However, it is twenty times more likely that you will be hit by flying space debris than win the Mega Millions jackpot.

If you play Mega Millions, you have a one in 302,575,350 chance of winning. However, earth scientist Professor Stephen A Nelson from Tulane University calculated that the odds of someone being hit by a comet, asteroid, or meteorite are one in 1,600,000.

Surely, you are more likely to win the lottery than be attacked by a shark?

This is a funny and slightly hypothetical comparison because some people are never going to be attacked by a shark because they do not go into the ocean. However, probability does not take that into consideration, and by the same token, you have to buy a ticket to partake in the lottery.

Comparing numbers alone, the chance of a deadly shark attack during one’s lifetime is one in 11.5 million, according to the International Shark Attack File.

What about a plane crash?

A 2017 Harvard University study found that the odds of being involved in a plane crash are one in 1.2 million. That is twelve times higher than the chance of selecting the six correct numbers from the 6 in 49 lottery. The odds of winning on that are one in 13,983,816.

Admittedly, these odds estimations are ‘statistical-average extrapolations’ rather than actual probabilities, but it still makes you realize that the chances are incredibly low. The good thing about comparing lottery odds to unlikely things that could happen in your lifetime is that you can perceive mathematical probability as physical possibilities. These real happenings put the odds of winning the lottery into perspective.

Entrepreneurs bet on themselves

The easy way to a big lottery win is probably little more than dreams, and your own enterprise could well be a surer route to financial success. However, many people play the lottery not expecting to win but just enjoying the experience. As a distraction from the stress and pressure of running a business or trying to get one off the ground, the simple purchase of picking six numbers can be a welcome relief.

People do not play the lottery expecting to win but as a form of escape. It is still one of the most popular games of chance throughout the world. Entertainment and expectation for many are more than enough rewards for the relatively small stake.

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