With Trump, Netanyahu’s got his work cut out for him

Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor at POLITICO Europe. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is hoping Iran’s ayatollahs will live to regret their murder-for-hire plots against United States President-elect Donald Trump.

The FBI uncovered two such schemes sponsored by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the weeks before America’s election day. And though they were amateurish in nature, Netanyahu will be highlighting these plots for all they’re worth, hoping to tempt Trump into endorsing his ambition of humbling Tehran’s clerical leaders.

Despite Trump’s post-election pledge to stop the wars currently raging around the world, Netanyahu looks to gain a freer hand than he had under President Joe Biden, along with less talk of a two-state solution, demands for day-after plans or threats to cut military aid. With Vice President Kamala Harris in the White House, that would have all been part of the package — which is why the Israeli leader made his preference for Trump clear.

“Of course, we don’t know what Trump is going to do, but understand one thing: Netanyahu really wanted him more than Kamala Harris,” said Nadav Shtrauchler, a former election strategist for the Israeli prime minister.

But getting Trump’s approval for everything Bibi might want could prove harder than expected. Trump will place limits, despite Netanyahu’s claim Sunday that he and Trump see “eye-to-eye” on the Iranian threat.

Netanyahu was among the very first foreign leaders to congratulate Trump on what he dubbed “history’s greatest comeback.” “Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America,” he posted on X. “This is a huge victory!”

All this quick and effusive lauding is part and parcel of a months-long effort to get back into the president-elect’s good graces, after the Israeli leader had enraged him in 2020. Back then, Netanyahu had been the first foreign leader to congratulate Biden while Trump was still disputing the election results. “Bibi could have stayed quiet,” an irritated Trump later groused.

Thus, in recent weeks, Netanyahu has been assiduously courting him with phone calls seeking his counsel, something Trump bragged about on the campaign trail. And in July, he repeatedly extolled Trump in a speech to the U.S. Congress where he didn’t mention Harris once, prompting Democratic complaints that he was, in effect, campaigning for her opponent and going full MAGA.

Still, all that may not be enough to win Trump’s support for targeting Iran’s leadership, or to try to crash the regime in Tehran. “Trump is still no fan of Bibi,” said a Washington lobbyist, granted anonymity in order to speak freely.

“Bibi’s not exactly succeeded yet to the point where he’s going to get everything he wants. Trump’s not going to give him a blank check. If that’s what Bibi expects, I think he’s going to be disappointed, and he’s going to have to recalibrate his approach because Trump wants to end the fighting in the Middle East almost as much as he does in Ukraine.”

But Netanyahu has grown increasingly emboldened, thinking about recasting the entire region — quite the opposite of the Biden administration, which has repeatedly pushed for winding down the war in Gaza, raised humanitarian concerns and has grown anxious over the expansion of the offensive in Lebanon.

Rather, Netanyahu believes he now has a once-in-a-generation chance to secure a “total victory” against Israel’s foes and establish a safe security environment for decades to come. That means continuing the offensive in Gaza to finish Hamas for good, pursuing Hezbollah so that it’s uprooted from Lebanon, as well as getting at the ultimate enemy — Iran.

While all this has the added benefit of possibly redeeming him in the eyes of Israelis who hold him responsible for the security lapses that allowed the Oct. 7 massacre to happen, his challenge now is to convince Trump of his grand strategy, and exactly how it can be accomplished without getting the U.S. ensnared in a “forever war.”

In his first term, Trump took a hardline on Iran-backed militias and, of course, he isn’t hesitant to act — hence the assassination of legendary Iranian general Qasem Soleimani. He also diverged from Biden on what Israel should and should not be targeting in a retaliatory strike on Iran last month — namely, Iran’s nuclear program. “Isn’t that what you’re supposed to hit? I mean, it’s the biggest risk we have, nuclear weapons,” he said at a campaign rally in North Carolina. “Hit the nuclear first, and worry about the rest later.”

Nonetheless, Netanyahu will have to be careful how he handles Trump and he knows it. According to an official familiar with the Israeli leader’s thinking, also granted anonymity to speak candidly: “There are no illusions that Trump is going to allow Israel free rein everywhere. Bibi and his advisers know that the pressure will come for a cease-fire soon — specifically, let’s say, in Lebanon, where there’s been much progress against Hezbollah, and it will be easier to reach a cease-fire,” they added.

“Trump expects a cease-fire on Lebanon soon — even before he’s inaugurated,” they said. And Israel will move on this. This week, Ron Dermer, Israel’s strategic affairs minister and a trusted Netanyahu aide, met with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to discuss cease-fire options in Lebanon.

Netanyahu also knows Trump still harbors residual distrust toward him. And he and his advisers are well aware of the doubts some in the MAGA camp have about any open-ended adventurism that may risk entangling Washington — which, for example, demolishing Iran’s nuclear facilities would certainly do.

These skeptics include Vice President-elect JD Vance, whose suspicion of foreign entanglements predates his MAGA conversion. It has its origins in his time as a Marine in Iraq, as he became highly disillusioned with America’s ill-fated wars in the region after his tour.

Last month, when asked about the Middle East and whether the U.S. should go to war against Iran, Vance warned that U.S. and Israeli interests wouldn’t always coincide: “Our interest very much is in not going to war with Iran. It would be a huge distraction of resources. It would be massively expensive to our country,” he said, suggesting that Israel and Arab countries in the Gulf should “provide the counterbalance to Iran.”

Having less exposure in the Middle East is a theme that others tipped for national security roles in Trump’s next administration have highlighted as well — they want the focus on China.

Speaking to POLITICO over the summer, Elbridge Colby — who some in Washington believe is in the running for deputy defense secretary or possibly deputy national security adviser — said the U.S. “should be having a smaller footprint in the Middle East.” “It would be a mistake if we fritter away our resources on peripheral conflicts,” he added.

There will be other countervailing pressures on Trump from the Saudis and Emiratis too. While happy to see Iran cut down to size and its clout much reduced, these countries have no interest in the region being set ablaze. Iran has also been pursuing a rapprochement with its Gulf neighbors, as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei approved a normalization in relations with Saudi Arabia just last year.

Unsurprisingly, Israel’s Gulf neighbors have responded in kind: The Saudis were among the first to condemn Israel’s airstrikes on Iran, and ruler Mohammed bin Salman has made it clear there can be no normalization of relations with Israel until war in Gaza has ceased, and serious steps to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are taken. What will complicate that is what Netanyahu will likely get from Trump — no objection to more Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

Trump’s stated determination to “stop wars” poses a serious challenge for Bibi.