EU has high hopes for the ‘anti-Michel’

BRUSSELS — The shoes are easy to fill. 

As António Costa takes over as European Council President from Charles Michel on Friday, Brussels is set to breathe a sigh of relief. 

European leaders and their envoys in Brussels are hopeful that Costa will approach the ill-defined job in a very different manner than his predecessor, who was deemed too chaotic in leading their meetings and overly focused on his own profile and professional future. 

In contrast to Michel, a 48-year-old former Belgian prime minister, Costa shows no sign that he intends to elbow his way into the political limelight. First elected to political office in 1982, the 63-year-old socialist politician has been an assemblyman, an MP, a minister, mayor of Lisbon and, most recently, prime minister of Portugal for eight years.

Costa’s long career, and his reported lack of interest in anything grander than the Council, were major selling points that helped him land the job. Earlier this year, EU diplomats frustrated with Michel’s indiscreet search for his next gig essentially demanded that his successor be someone old and boring — if not actually dead, a condition many Brussels hacks joke would make for the ideal Council president.

While the bar is low, the expectations for Costa are high — especially as he is entering one of the EU’s top jobs at a time when Europe is bracing for a second Donald Trump presidency that could grind the continent’s economy to a halt and leave it to repel Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on its own. 

The European Commission’s powerful president, Ursula von der Leyen, will be the EU official charged with trying to avoid an all-out trade war with the U.S. and coordinating support for Kyiv. But it’s Costa’s job to keep the bloc’s 27 national leaders united in the face of Trump’s divide-and-conquer tactics. 

The socialist politician’s dynamics with von der Leyen will be key to ensuring the EU has a coordinated response to Trump and other challenges. Costa is said to be well aware he has nothing to gain from replicating the petty battles Michel waged with von der Leyen, which included the “Sofagate” scandal in which the Belgian snatched the only chair in the room during a meeting with Turkey’s president, leaving the Commission president relegated to a couch and visibly aghast.

Determined to stave off the drama that hobbled the EU’s decision-making capabilities and undermined the image of Brussels, von der Leyen and Costa’s teams are working closely to ensure that the personal respect between their two bosses translates into good working relationships. Earlier this month, Costa told POLITICO that he had a strong personal relationship with the Commission president and that he was looking forward to being in regular contact with her.

“It’s very clear: Sofagate will not happen with Costa,” said one senior EU diplomat. “The change of style, personality and ego with [Michel] is very clear.”

Having a strong relationship with the incoming Council president is also important for von der Leyen. Michel has largely been blamed for the feud, in part because the Commission president adroitly censured him for his blunders.

But in preparatory meetings with EU leaders and their teams, some of Costa’s aides have privately noted that it takes two to tango. If things between von der Leyen and Michel’s successor go south, many will inevitably wonder if the Belgian was solely responsible for the bad blood.

Different tactics 

The reset in the relationship with the Commission isn’t the only way in which EU leaders hope Costa will be the anti-Michel. 

During his recent round of visits to the EU’s 27 heads of government, national leaders asked the former Portuguese prime minister to alter the way in which their summits in Brussels are conducted. The idea is to have more strategic discussions instead of the standard long drafting sessions that tend to focus on whatever topic is dominating the agenda in Brussels at any given moment.

One seasoned EU official warned that every Council president has sought a similar reimagining of the role. So far, all have failed because the summits are attended by national leaders who push for their own agenda items or amendments. 

“One word almost never makes a difference in the bigger picture,” the official said. “Leaders should focus on giving guidance. But it’s easier said than done.”

Looking around the leaders table, Costa faces two additional challenges. The Franco–German engine that has traditionally pushed Europe forward has weakened, with Paris and Berlin distracted by domestic politics, as is Warsaw. Meanwhile, the EU’s troublemaker-in-chief Viktor Orbán feels emboldened by Trump’s victory across the Atlantic.

Costa, a member of the Party of European Socialists, is taking over a Council dominated by von der Leyen’s center-right European People’s Party. Only four center-left prime ministers are currently members of the elite club of national leaders, and that number is likely to drop in January, when Christian Democratic Union leader Friedrich Merz is expected to trounce incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Germany’s snap elections. 

The fact that Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who leads a fragile minority government in Madrid, is the strongest socialist standing has diplomats joking that Costa’s main job will be to rubber-stamp the EPP’s decisions.  

While looking for the right balance amid the political factions, Costa has to ensure that the leaders around the table confirm him again when his term comes up for renewal in 2.5 years, when there may be barely any socialist leaders left sitting at the Council table. 

Those who know Costa, a skilled political operator with four decades of experience, argue that he shouldn’t be underestimated in using the informal power of his new post. The Council presidency position is relatively new and ill-defined in the 2007 Treaty of Lisbon. That fluidity has left each of his predecessors to interpret the job differently, and to define it along the way. 

“The president speaks on behalf of the European Council composed of 27 member countries, and when he speaks he must do so in all of their names,” Costa said in an interview.

But, he added, “the president can and should have opinions.”

During his time as prime minister, Costa became famous for negotiating improbable agreements with political rivals. He said his ability to make deals lies in “talking to people, listening to them, understanding the points of divergence and finding ways to work together” — skills he picked up while interacting with citizens when he was in local government in Lisbon.

Costa said he had embarked on his listening tour of Europe’s capitals — an odyssey he aims to repeat at the start of every political year he serves as Council president — to get first-hand knowledge of the issues national leaders want to address during their summits in Brussels. 

“My main mission is to guarantee unity between everyone,” he said. “And that means being in permanent contact … anticipating disagreements and helping to build consensus.”

The relationships Costa is attempting to build with the bloc’s national leaders could be key to reaching common stances on EU aid to Ukraine, potential trade wars with Washington or Beijing, and the bloc’s next multi-annual budget. A first test will come on Dec. 19, when Costa chairs his inaugural meeting of European leaders just as the bloc needs to prepare its response to Trump’s inauguration in January. 

The Council’s new president appears confident in his ability to rise to the occasion.

“My role is to facilitate coordination between 27 member states, regardless of whether they are large or small, northern or southern, wealthy or less wealthy, led by one political family or another,” he said. “We’re all here to work together for the benefit of the union and its citizens, because together we are stronger.”