French far right vows to topple Barnier if he doesn’t budge on budget 

PARIS — The leader of the French far right, Marine Le Pen, threatened to topple the government and throw France into fiscal and political turmoil over a budget dispute after meeting with Prime Minister Michel Barnier on Monday.

Speaking to reporters, Le Pen said her party, the National Rally, would vote in favor of a motion of no confidence against the budget “as things stand.” Le Pen last week said that an increase on a tax on electricity proposed by the Barnier budget crossed a “red line” for her party.

During their meeting, Barnier defended his proposed budget, which includes the tax hike on electricity, and appeared “at the same time courteous and uncompromising,” Le Pen said.

Le Pen, whose political future has come under threat due to a trial over her alleged embezzlement of European funds, has pitched herself as the candidate against the cost-of-living crisis since the last presidential election in 2022. She said the government should look to save on immigration expenses and by cutting access to health care for undocumented immigrants instead of through taxation or spending cuts. 

Barnier’s government, which is supported by a fractious alliance of centrists and right-wing lawmakers, has proposed draconian spending cuts and tax hikes for next year to reduce France’s deficit, which is projected to reach 6.1 percent of the country’s gross domestic product this year.

Barnier has vowed to bring that figure down to 5 percent of GDP in 2025 as part of his effort to bring France back in line with European Union spending rules that require member states to keep deficit spending below 3 percent of GDP. The European Commission placed France under an excessive deficit procedure for falling afoul of the 3 percent rule in 2023. 

To pass his budget, Barnier will likely need to use a constitutional backdoor that allows him to bypass a vote in France’s lower house of parliament, the National Assembly, but allows lawmakers to table motions of no confidence. The pan-left New Popular Front has already vowed to put forward such a motion. Should National Rally lawmakers vote for it, Barnier’s government would collapse. 

While a U.S.-style shutdown is extremely unlikely to take place in France, it is unclear what would happen if the government fell over the budgetary debate. 

The EU and financial markets are watching Barnier’s budgetary battle closely as an indication of France’s willingness to follow rules designed to ensure the stability of the eurozone. The single currency area has been roiled by previous panics in significantly smaller economies, such as Greece or Spain, so a full-blown French crisis could prove explosive.  

With the far right ready to turn on Barnier, the government appears to be attempting to convince the Socialist Party to join them in a marriage of convenience and prevent what government spokesperson Maud Bregeon called “a Greek-style scenario” in an interview with Le Parisien published on Saturday.  

“It’s up to them … to come to the table. I know some of them are ready,” Bregon said. 

But such a partnership appears highly unlikely at the moment. The New Popular Front remains furious with Emmanuel Macron after the president denied the alliance the opportunity to form a government after it won the most seats — but fell short of a majority — in the National Assembly during this summer’s election.  

Though the Socialists are the most centrist of parties that make up the New Popular Front, its leaders appear ready to bring Barnier down.  

Party leader Olivier Faure has already pledged to back a motion of no confidence if Barnier attempts to push the budget through without a vote, while Boris Vallaud, the leader of the Socialist group in the National Assembly, is already looking beyond the government’s likely downfall.  

On Sunday, Vallaud called for all political groups except for the National Rally to hold talks on how to ensure the next government’s stability once Barnier is out. 

“It’s obvious we’ll censure the government. The question is: What comes next? On what basis can a new government be formed, and how can we move forward before the next legislative elections?” an adviser to Vallaud, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with French professional standards, told POLITICO. 

Giorgio Leali and Anthony Lattier contributed to this report.