Georgia election showdown as opposition seeks to overturn results

TBILISI, Georgia — Growing allegations of vote-rigging in a critical nationwide election in Georgia are fueling a bitter battle between the government and opposition parties, with European capitals and nongovernmental organizations issuing warnings about the state of the country’s democracy.

On Monday, the four parliamentary opposition groups together agreed they would boycott the national assembly as civil society claimed Saturday’s parliamentary poll had been marred by significant attempts to unduly influence the result by the governing Georgian Dream party.

“Election results do not represent the will of the Georgian people,” said Giorgi Gakharia, former prime minister and chairman of the opposition For Georgia bloc. “We will not give Georgian Dream parliament legitimacy,” he wrote online.

Speaking to POLITICO, Giorgi Oniani, the deputy director of Transparency International in Georgia, said the anti-corruption watchdog had analyzed more than 360 photos and video recordings of irregularities during polling on Saturday, as well as detailed statistical data from more than 100 of the 1,131 polling stations across the country.

“On paper, Georgian Dream’s majority of 400,000 votes looks significant. But when you break it down by polling precincts, together with other schemes, it could have been down to flipping fewer than 100 opposition votes in each district,” he said.

“In practice, we’ve seen evidence Georgian Dream has used the state security apparatus to carry out a massive program of voter surveillance to target opposition-minded Georgians for vote buying and intimidation schemes,” Oniani said.

An Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe-led international monitoring mission said the vote was “marred by an uneven playing field, pressure and tension, but voters were offered a wide choice” of candidates.

Fears of media crackdown

Transparency International is one of the civil society groups that will be branded a “foreign agent” under a new Russian-style law targeting Western-funded NGOs, which was passed by Georgian Dream MPs over the summer despite widespread protests. It has said it will refuse to comply, and could be shuttered in the coming months if authorities push ahead with enforcement.

Other organizations have raised fears of a crackdown on the media. In a statement, Reporters Without Borders (RSF) warned that “Georgia’s drift away from democracy is now eroding one of its core pillars: press freedom,” adding that threats, harassment and legal challenges were squeezing independent media.

“In the face of these shocking developments and pro-Russian disinformation campaigns, RSF is calling for a democratic overhaul,” said Jeanne Cavelier, head of the watchdog’s regional office.

Opposition politicians are pushing for the results to be declared invalid, claiming Georgia will become a one-party state if they don’t take up their mandates in the parliament.

According to Kornely Kakachia, an analyst at the Georgian Institute of Politics, a snap rerun of the poll could happen if there was significant pressure. The European Union, he said, “could demand creating a special investigation committee, comprised of experts, to look into election results. The Georgian Dream cannot refuse to [do] that, because they’re claiming they’re transparent.”

” If [Georgian Dream] sees that stakes are high and the situation is going out of control, [they] will have to budge for requests to reexamine their claim of victory,” Kakachia said.

However, the chairman of the Georgian parliament, Shalva Papuashvili, said the assembly will proceed as planned and will recognize the legitimacy of MPs, even if they refuse to turn up for work. “Sooner or later, they will join the parliament and take their salaries,” he said.

Critical moment

Speaking at a press conference in Brussels on Monday, European Commission spokesperson Nabila Massrali said the EU “is following closely developments” in Georgia and reiterated the bloc’s call for an investigation into alleged interference.

A hotly anticipated visit by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to Tbilisi on Monday night, she said, “takes place exclusively in the framework of bilateral relations between Hungary and Georgia. Prime Minister Orbán has not received any mandate from the EU Council to visit Tbilisi.”

Orbán moved to congratulate Georgian Dream before the results had even been published, but other national capitals have raised concerns over the process.

However, while the EU works on next steps, a senior Biden administration official, granted anonymity to speak freely about the U.S. government’s internal thinking about the Georgian elections, said that there’s an appetite to hold Georgian officials accountable and emphasized that the coming days will be “dynamic.”

“We’re going to watch very carefully as events unfold in the next few days,” said the official. “Obviously, Georgian citizens have a right to freedom of assembly, freedom of speech, and it’s going to be critical that the government fully respect rule of law and fundamental freedoms.”

Decrying the election as having been rigged by a “Russian special operation,” Georgia’s largely ceremonial president, Salome Zourabichvili, called on opposition supporters to take to the streets outside parliament Monday evening. Over the summer, protesters attempted to break down barricades outside the parliament building and confront lawmakers as part of widespread demonstrations against new restrictions introduced by Georgian Dream on civil society and the LGBTQ+ community.

As crowds gathered, Zourabichvili told protestors that she’s spoken with multiple presidents and foreign ministers — and all but one said that they don’t recognize the results of the election, in a veiled dig at Orbán.

Opposition parties had sought to turn the election into a referendum on EU membership, given Georgia’s candidate status was frozen by the bloc in the wake of the standoff and the crackdown on protesters that followed the passage of the “foreign agent” law. The United States has imposed sanctions on Georgian Dream politicians and police officers it says were responsible.

Meanwhile though, Kakha Kaladze, a former A.C. Milan midfielder who now serves as Georgian Dream’s mayor in the capital of Tbilisi, vowed authorities would take action against any unlawful behavior at the rally.

“Anyone who goes beyond the law should remember very well that an appropriate, very strict response will be given within the law,” he said. “Radicalism, evil and the filth we have seen in recent months and years will never come to power.”

However, with protests set to start as Orbán arrives, the two sides are split over whether the Hungarian leader’s trip is proof of friendly ties with the EU, or a sign of Georgia’s increasing isolation given only the most Moscow-friendly member country is willing to uncritically endorse the election result.

“Now, we can only hope public outcry can change the outcome of this election,” said Oniani, the anti-corruption campaigner. “And for that to happen we need Western nations not to recognize the results as valid.”

Eric Bazail-Eimil, Maggie Miller and Robbie Gramer contributed reporting from Washington, D.C.